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I have no idea what I'm doing
first unusual suggestion. let me know if there's an error as soon as possible
sale #1
sold for a Smoking A Rather Festive Tree
bp before: http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198075816743?time=1438326000
bp after: http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198075816743?time=1438412400
24 * 0.9 = 22
mini for the smoking a rather festive tree
sellers ranging from 23-25 keys, the average price being 24 (if this is not what you're supposed to do for mini's, please let me know immediately): http://gyazo.com/c6eb451faedaa9b6b5027adc38d3484b
sale #2
sold for a painted Disco Beatdown Vintage Merryweather worth 29 keys
bp before: https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198005504845?time=1436166000
bp after: https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198005504845?time=1436425200
29 * 0.9 = 26
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/26312270 - Shako was offered in sale #2, so no overpay there.
As for your mini, it's definitely best to have a sale, but if your only choice is to use B/Os then take the lowest clean one that hasn't been placed on the market recently enough to be called a possible quicksell.
And for Sale #1, I think it is extremely possible that this item was added with the Tree: http://backpack.tf/item/3971622381
Wildfap uses SCM for a lot of their trading, and it disappeared from Device's backpack on the same day of the trade, only to be acquired by DroneEye via SCM the next day. It could easily have been traded and then placed on SCM before the item's history updated to include Wildfap. This doesn't prove that it was involved, but I think it's a possibility. I would advise asking either of the involved traders, just to be sure.
http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198058779838?time=1438412400 - Also 3 keys pure added with the Shako in Sale #1, forgot about that.
My goodness, thank you. Can't believe I missed this much
Don't worry about it, it was all little stuff that was easy to miss. Your overall suggestion is solid and takes the price in the right direction, it just needs fine-tuning.
I'd also like to add on to Marty, that the merry weather was getting offers of 35 keys in unusuals and 30 in pure on my bazaar.tf trade. In that time the merry weather might have dropped, so its better to use prices from the time of the sale unless the sale happened recently.