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One recent sale:
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/25555040 - Sold for sunbeams sack (39*0.9 = ~35)
Mini for sack - backpack.tf/profiles/76561198121945669?time=1433746800
Sold for duped max + 15 keys
27*0.9 = ~24
24+15 = 39
The other recent sale was purchased via SCM
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/26151981 b/o 29 keys for a while. Should form a low end with this. Not sure what it sold for.
And also, the mini suggestion for the sack, the seller's b/o was 34 keys. http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/26128398. It should've been capped at that. With overpay applied, your sale should be less.