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"Dont put your head in a blender"
The sales
Sale 1:
Sold for ghosts scotch bonnet (~17) + buds (~3.3)
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/26046656
http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198173925222?time=1432839814 before
http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198173925222?time=1432882800 after
0.9*(17+3.3) = ~ 18
-> 18 keys
Sale 2:
Probably CSGO stuff
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/25625151
http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198079122683?time=1428665766 before
http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198079122683?time=1428735600 after
not using
Sale 3:
Sold + logo festivizer? (~15) for PE festivizer (~36)
Logo festivizer doesnt appear in the buyers bp; cant check the new owner's bp before, because he has no backpack scans before.
Buyer:
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/25482033
http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198079122683?time=1427612400 before
http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198079122683?time=1427698800 after
Seller:
http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198080379805?time=1427633565 before
http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198080379805?time=1427698800 after
Assuming the logo festivizer was not involved, this sale would be 36 keys. Otherwise it would be ~21.
Sale 3:
More csgo shit
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/25811061
http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198072378066?time=1429599600 before
http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198072378066?time=1429904314 after
Sale 4:
Sold for S.pro ks gunslinger (~25)
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/25694331
http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561197997507273?time=1428696673 before
http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561197997507273?time=1429426800 after
Mini in pure equivalent, no overpay
-> 25 keys
The minis
Mini festivizer:
- Sold for 3 buds when they were 12 (36):
http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198062802524?time=1425570559 before
http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198062802524?time=1425801600 after
- Sold for 36 keys
http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561197960549944?time=1426940721 before
http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561197960549944?time=1427266800 after
The seller in the led's sale had a BO of 39, supporting this drop
This seems low, but theres two pure sales at 36
Taking 36
Mini gunslinger:
http://imgur.com/w3kC4IF averagely sells ~55€ => 25 keys
taking 25
Supportive
Current sellers:
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/26054391 30 keys (but listed 23 on classifieds)
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/25661091 offers
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/25888834 60 (unsold 3 weeks, no offers)
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/25820805 59 (unsold a month, no offers)
Seller at 23/30 render the uncertain 36 sale an outlier. If the logo festiv was added, the sale fits within suggested range. Going for 18-25
Constructive criticism welcome!
~Foamy :3