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~40.5 keys
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Unusual Letch's LED Morning Glory
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"Dont put your head in a blender"


The sales


Sale 1:


Sold for ghosts scotch bonnet (~17) + buds (~3.3)

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/26046656

http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198173925222?time=1432839814 before

http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198173925222?time=1432882800 after

0.9*(17+3.3) = ~ 18


-> 18 keys


Sale 2:


Probably CSGO stuff

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/25625151

http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198079122683?time=1428665766 before

http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198079122683?time=1428735600 after

not using


Sale 3:


Sold + logo festivizer? (~15) for PE festivizer (~36)

Logo festivizer doesnt appear in the buyers bp; cant check the new owner's bp before, because he has no backpack scans before.

Buyer:

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/25482033

http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198079122683?time=1427612400 before

http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198079122683?time=1427698800 after


Seller:

http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198080379805?time=1427633565 before

http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198080379805?time=1427698800 after

Assuming the logo festivizer was not involved, this sale would be 36 keys. Otherwise it would be ~21.


Sale 3:


More csgo shit

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/25811061

http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198072378066?time=1429599600 before

http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198072378066?time=1429904314 after


Sale 4:


Sold for S.pro ks gunslinger (~25)

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/25694331

http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561197997507273?time=1428696673 before

http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561197997507273?time=1429426800 after

Mini in pure equivalent, no overpay


-> 25 keys


The minis


Mini festivizer:

- Sold for 3 buds when they were 12 (36):

http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198062802524?time=1425570559 before

http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198062802524?time=1425801600 after

- Sold for 36 keys

http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561197960549944?time=1426940721 before

http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561197960549944?time=1427266800 after

The seller in the led's sale had a BO of 39, supporting this drop

This seems low, but theres two pure sales at 36

Taking 36


Mini gunslinger:

http://imgur.com/w3kC4IF averagely sells ~55€ => 25 keys

taking 25


Supportive


Current sellers:

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/26054391 30 keys (but listed 23 on classifieds)

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/25661091 offers

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/25888834 60 (unsold 3 weeks, no offers)

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/25820805 59 (unsold a month, no offers)


Seller at 23/30 render the uncertain 36 sale an outlier. If the logo festiv was added, the sale fits within suggested range. Going for 18-25


Constructive criticism welcome!


~Foamy :3