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Just gonna sneak in here and update this inflated mask.
(oddly enough this one was actually in mime's collection)
One sold roughly a month ago: http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/25458176
BP of Seller before: http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198075475559?time=1430118000
BP of Seller after: http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198075475559?time=1430550000
BP of buyer before: http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198083083810?time=1430463600
BP of buyer after: http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198083083810?time=1430550000
History of Phantom: http://backpack.tf/item/2976703095
History of Launcher: http://backpack.tf/item/3164689079
Appears to have been sold for a pro killstreak aussie launcher with a plethora of parts and some spells. Would be valued around 63-68 keys or thereabouts.
Asked the buyer and didn't get any info about the trade so is going to assume it was just the launcher.(doesn't seem like he's very happy about the price update) http://puu.sh/hWZuk/d59fcc6911.png
mini on the launcher: Appears to have been sold on SCM by looking at the history.
BP of buyer before: http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198107358473?time=1431327600
BP of buyer after: http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198107358473?time=1431414000
1 launcher sold for $180~ on May 12th which taking out steam tax roughly equals $156. 156/2.3 = 67.8 keys.
Unsold for 10 months: http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/21296764
Another recent sale: http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/25868944
Sold for a dp tipped lid. (someone could possibly use this suggestion as an outlier for the lid?)
BP of seller before: http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198086793593?time=1430722800
BP of seller after: http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198086793593?time=1430895600
Can't use the buyers history because its too wild.
If someone would be so kind to fill in any cracks that might have been overlooked it would be appreciated.
mini on the launcher needed.
Use SCM sales for the Pro KS Aussie Launcher and make a mini out of that.
added mini for launcher
For your first sale, the frostbite L'inspecteur was included. http://backpack.tf/item/3602443261. It was this hat + Frostbite Insecteur(27 keys) for Strange Professional killstreak Australium Rocket Launcher. This will probably come out to be close to 40 keys
Some more sales
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/25992266 Sold for Stormy Storm Brainiac's Hairpiece(28 keys * 0.9 = ~25 keys) + 14 keys + 38 refs + ~3 keys in sweets. Making this ~44 keys
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/25999634 Traded this + Smoking Bonk Helm(17 keys) for Sunbeams Buccaneer's Bicorne(93 keys * 0.9 = ~84 keys). Making this ~67 keys
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/25868944 Sold for Dead Presidents Tipped Lid(45 keys * 0.9 = ~41 keys)
Current seller http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/25432257 b/o in pure is 65 keys for 2 months now(Look at the response to Jesus The Playa)
Your range here is on the high side here considering that the 65 keys seller hasn't sold for 2 months and i do not really know how you get to the range's low end. There are multiple sales here in the 40 keys region. However, they seemed to have sold pretty quickly apart from the sale that you presented. I would go with a wide range here of 41-67 keys to capture all the sales.