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~96 keys
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Unusual Cold Killer Power Surge
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Comments

"New sales, new proof, new price"


Credits to GMSOD for bringing new sales to my attention c:


Resuggesting, based on facts from this suggestion:

http://backpack.tf/vote/id/5533d6c7b98d8887148b6bc4#comment-553e1d8bba8d88f73b8b472e


Sales from last suggestion:

Usable values at:

22

23

46


46 considered outlier based on it exceeding other sales' values by far and due to it being unsold for 35 for over a week.


New sales


New sale 1:

Sold for a clean max (27) + team spirit paintcan (~1 after overpay) + 4 keys

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198097398914?time=1428357559 before

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198097398914?time=1428822000 after

Histories have gaps and its hard to determine what really happened.

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/25413232 suggests it involved an aussie scatter, which matches the return seen in the compared histories price-wise. (scatter: 35*0.9 = ~31.5 -> 32 || Compared histories return: 27 + 4 + 1 = ~32)


-> 32 keys


New sale 2:


Sold for an aussie sniper rifle (~34)

Buyer:

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198149180255?time=1429340400 before

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198149180255?time=1429426800 after


Seller:

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198061629815?time=1428908400 before

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198061629815?time=1429453708 after


Histories:

Killer: https://backpack.tf/item/1648131617

Sniper: https://backpack.tf/item/3624981915

The trade post: http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/25701855

0.9*34 = ~30.6, rounding to 31


-> 31 keys


The new sales are more solid than the previous sales used to determine its price (as they involved a duped, outdated hat and a ton of random items), make sense compared to the unsold B/O of 35 and make a nice average between all sales from the original suggestion.

We now have:

22 [duped hat]

23 [random stuff]

31

32

46 [high outlier]


Conclusion: Going for a final range of 31-32 keys


Constructive criticism welcome!


~Foamy :3