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"New sales, new proof, new price"
Credits to GMSOD for bringing new sales to my attention c:
Resuggesting, based on facts from this suggestion:
http://backpack.tf/vote/id/5533d6c7b98d8887148b6bc4#comment-553e1d8bba8d88f73b8b472e
Sales from last suggestion:
Usable values at:
22
23
46
46 considered outlier based on it exceeding other sales' values by far and due to it being unsold for 35 for over a week.
New sales
New sale 1:
Sold for a clean max (27) + team spirit paintcan (~1 after overpay) + 4 keys
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198097398914?time=1428357559 before
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198097398914?time=1428822000 after
Histories have gaps and its hard to determine what really happened.
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/25413232 suggests it involved an aussie scatter, which matches the return seen in the compared histories price-wise. (scatter: 35*0.9 = ~31.5 -> 32 || Compared histories return: 27 + 4 + 1 = ~32)
-> 32 keys
New sale 2:
Sold for an aussie sniper rifle (~34)
Buyer:
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198149180255?time=1429340400 before
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198149180255?time=1429426800 after
Seller:
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198061629815?time=1428908400 before
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198061629815?time=1429453708 after
Histories:
Killer: https://backpack.tf/item/1648131617
Sniper: https://backpack.tf/item/3624981915
The trade post: http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/25701855
0.9*34 = ~30.6, rounding to 31
-> 31 keys
The new sales are more solid than the previous sales used to determine its price (as they involved a duped, outdated hat and a ton of random items), make sense compared to the unsold B/O of 35 and make a nice average between all sales from the original suggestion.
We now have:
22 [duped hat]
23 [random stuff]
31
32
46 [high outlier]
Conclusion: Going for a final range of 31-32 keys
Constructive criticism welcome!
~Foamy :3