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1/1 hat
Sale 1)
sold+ ~4 keys in sweets for n&b gibus
http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198042255877?time=1424505600 (February 21st)
http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198042255877?time=1425283200 (March 2nd)
http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198042255877?time=1424505600&compare=1425283200
52*.9=46.8
46.8-4= ~43
43 keys
Sale 2)
sold + blizzard noir for frostbite noir
http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198042255877?time=1428303600 (April 6th)
http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198042255877?time=1428390000 (April 7th)
http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198042255877?time=1428390000&compare=1428303600
offered on http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/25598783
x+ 15 = 36
x=21
21 keys
Sale 3)
quicksale
http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198091356631?time=1428390000 (April 7th)
http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198091356631?time=1428476400 (April 8th)
http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198091356631?time=1428476400&compare=1428390000
sold + ~4 keys in sweets for circling heart l’inspecteur
.9*53=47.7
47.7-4=~44
44 keys
21 is definitely an outlier, taking 43-44.
If the buyer adds, you shouldn't calculate overpay on the Gibus, but rather on the Sweets (sale 1)
Same with Sale 3.
Thus, sale 1 would be 48 keys and sale 3 would be 49
There is not evidence that the hat was offered, so overpay should be taken. There is no point in taking overpay on sweets <5 keys because it will round back anyway.