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d0 asks, I deliver.
SALES:
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/25391455 Sold for MG Forge (Outdated in 4 days, will mini, mini at 75) + Gifted 13th Tyrants (Needs mini, mini at 77.5)
(75 + 77.5) * 0.9 = 137.25 (rounding to 135)
Histories;
http://www.tf2outpost.com/item/440,3625742151,30390,5
http://www.tf2outpost.com/item/440,3625742173,30114,5
http://www.tf2outpost.com/item/440,3625742139,99,5
http://snag.gy/7BwU2.jpg -> Sold + sweets (~3) for Ghosts Cold Killer (Outdated at hooooly moly, mini at 195)
(195 * 0.9) - 3 = 172.5 (rounding to 175)
Histories;
http://snag.gy/aMwkx.jpg
http://snag.gy/Rsb59.jpg
http://www.tf2outpost.com/item/440,3625742151,30390,5
http://www.tf2outpost.com/item/440,3592327780,981,5
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/25082703 Sold for Steaming Ninja (40) + Mallard Bonk (154)
194 * 0.9 = 174.6 (rounding to 175)
Bonk is approaching outdated, so I'll call this supporting evidence. It's probably nearer mid-range.
Forge mini:
Two current B/Os of 75 keys
Recent sales are just ugh
Using 75.
Tyrants mini:
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/25317709 'Quicksold' for 2 max heads (~60 pure at the time)
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/25544167 Offered Blizz TC (~77.5)
Using 77.5
Killer mini:
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/25408234 Sold for PE Mountebank (170) + Ghosts Noir (28) + Ghosts Brigade (42.5)
(170 + 28 + 42.5) * 0.9 = 216.45 (rounding to 215)
Histories;
http://www.tf2outpost.com/item/440,3485634646,981,5
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/25407032
http://snag.gy/8pq60.jpg Sold for:
http://snag.gy/31h6O.jpg Hearts Panama (~73)
http://snag.gy/sKuGn.jpg Frostbite Baker (66.5)
http://snag.gy/Bsf1o.jpg Time Warp Lid (~37)
http://snag.gy/QB3Qq.jpg O.Fire Festivizer (~19)
(73 + 66.5 + 37 + 19) * 0.9 = 175.95 (rounding to 175)
Using 175-215.
Let it ride.
Don't think it's worth that much....
Also sold for a Darkblaze Towering Titanium Pillar of Hats (103 keys?):
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/25696433
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/25549311
Though DB tower is like 12 months outdate, so a mini would be needed, but doubt it's much higher.
Also Sold for Cloudy Moon Mann of Reason + 10 keys (105 keys)
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/25533740
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/25549380
And from the other suggestion:
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/25047519 - Sold for an Oozing War Pig (129 keys)
Proof: http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198050729672?time=1425970800 (Owner's Backpack)
Proof: http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198044521934?time=1425970800 (Proof on the War Pig)
Well, sales at 100, 135, 175, 175, 215. One outlier on either end? You're probably right than some inflated hats are being used here.. But it's probably not too far off.
I'd like to see someone trying to price a Overclocked Hotrod
3-5 Buds?
Okay now my brain hurts.