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Counter-manipulation (Took me hours to make that one --')
27 in existence. 3 on market
Sellers
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/25522580 36 keys - young
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/25512531 38 keys (36 on classifieds) - young
Histories found with recent sales
http://backpack.tf/item/225384159 4 sales the last 2 months
http://backpack.tf/item/574556036 7 sales the last 2 months
http://backpack.tf/item/462098141 1 sale the last 2 months
#1 sale
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/25174548
Sold for http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/25176090 Miami Geezer + Spe KS Pan + Gold MKII RL (buds were 12)
(16.2 + 11.5)*0.9 = 25 keys
Lowest sellers of Spe KS Pan at 8 keys on classifieds, sales around 9 keys on SCM
#2 sale
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/25403800
http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198124806816?time=1426575600 -> http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198124806816?time=1426662000
Sold for Spe KS Aussie Medi-Gun + FS Crossbow -> (26 + 2.3)*0.9 = 25 keys
Mini on the Medi-gun -> lowest sellers of Spe KS at bp.tf price on classifieds -> 26 keys.
#3 sale
http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198068508327?time=1425628800 -> http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198068508327?time=1425715200
Sold with a Spe KS FS Amby + S. DCO for a Searing Thirst Blood -> x + 5 + 2.3 = 30 -> x = 23 keys low-end
Mini on the Thirst Blood ~ 30 keys :
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/25360829 3 buds pure (30 keys at the time)
#4 sale (credits to the [VDDS] O'Gee)
http://gyazo.com/5821fbe11209f1c1c997230d192753c8 duped Canonball + random craft hat for the Chief -> probably offered -> overpay
Canonball: http://backpack.tf/item/3627584470
Chief: http://backpack.tf/item/225384159
27*0.9 = 24 keys
Duped Canonball's mini ~ 24 keys :
http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198107565749?time=1427439600 -> http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198107565749?time=1427526000
Sold for duped Smoking Pencil + duped NnB Hoodie -> 27 keys (will avoid the double overpay)
Clean unsold supporting the price :
Unsold during 2 months at 2.5 buds (27 keys at the time) http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/24802171
#5 sale (credits to the [VDDS] O'Gee)
http://prntscr.com/6mqy4g Chief + 7 keys of sweets for a Heart Fro (outdated). Chief more likely offered -> no overpay.
Fro: http://backpack.tf/item/3564294484
Chief: http://backpack.tf/item/574556036
x + 0.7 = 3.4 -> x = 2.7 buds = 26 keys at the time
Fro's mini ~ 3.4 buds :
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/25208812 Offer of a level 1 Max (can't trace the sale, the Max could have been put directly on SCM after the trade) = 3 buds at the time
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/25190424 Offered on a Scorching Stuntman 3.8 buds
http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198055544256?time=1425970800 -> http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198055544256?time=1426057200 Sold with a GE Milkman for a PE Swagman (outlier)
#6 sale
http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198156002776?time=1424592000 -> http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198156002776?time=1424678400
Sold for a Phantasm Bicorne 3 buds after overpay = 36 keys at the time high-end
#7 sale
http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198064745482?time=1424419200 -> http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198064745482?time=1424505600
Sold for 33 pure keys
#8 sale
http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198055444957?time=1423123200 -> http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198055444957?time=1423382400
Sold with 12 keys for a Phantasm Honcho outlier
#9 sale
http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198055444957?time=1422950400 -> http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198055444957?time=1423123200
Level 1 Max (3*12.5 keys at the time) sold for Chief + 15 keys -> x = 37.5-15 = 23 keys low-end
#10 sale
http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198054804873?time=1427266800 -> http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198054804873?time=1427353200
Sale is unclear, 3 people are involved between the 2 days, Searing Mining Light (outdated) + duped Tiger Flippin + Frostbite Robo-Drill are involved in the sale
Conclusion : Quite a wide range but the pure sale at 33 keys 1 month ago is showing that the 36 keys one isn't an outlier.
Making a range of 23-36 keys
Any comments are welcome.