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Only able to find two sales. Don't blame me for the range.
(Resuggesting. I messed up on my math.)
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Solds
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http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/23064774 - Sold for a Circling Planets Pyromancer + Pro KS Degreaser (1.25 Buds) + 2 Keys of Sweets.
3.25 + 1.25 + 0.125 = 4.625 * 0.9 = 4.1625 > 4.2 Buds.
Before: http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198112281935?time=1414047600
After: http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198112281935?time=1414206086
*Taking the original price on the Pyromancer, since offers have been on the low end of the range.
*Price for Degreaser is the lowest on the Classified Market.
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http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/23064351 - Traded (along with a Stormy Soldier Stash) for Bubbling Antlers.
7 - 5 = 2 Buds. (No item overpay calculated.)
Before: http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198097393101?time=1415500029
After: http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198097393101?time=1415606400
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This is barely a price. Use offers to work out which sale is an outlier.
Yeah. This one is giving me a headache. I'll check the offers on the most latest seller.
Edit: http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/24072394 - C9 Bone Dome (2.35) + Blizzardy Mongolian (1.07) (Not including sweets.)
2.35 + 1.07 = 3.42 * 0.9 = 3.078.
Sits in the middle of the range. /facepalm
Considering that we already know that 2 is an outlier, and that the second sale happened over a month ago, you should go for 4.2 flat.
2 buds looks a bit low tbh.
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/24072394 Got offered a Cloud 9 Bone Dome and a Blizzardy Mongolian, offer's around 3.3 if using outdated prices, but it's argueably ~2.5.
I'd say that 2 buds is an outlier, especially due to being involved on a higher tier sale.
Yeah. The current offer, not even including sweets, rounds up to 3 buds. With it being used for that higher-tier sale, it seems outlier, especially when the seller of the antlers was seeking about 10 buds.
That range is disgustingly wide. Wait for a 3rd sale.