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~95 keys
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Unusual Combustible Kabuto Stare From Beyond
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Stare from Beyond Combustible Kabuto


Quoting polar on my last suggestion (of 7-11): Price is probably high in pure. High end comes from some brutally difficult hats to sell. AA sale value is probably ~8 in pure counting the whirly as 5 given its b/o at 6. I'm pretty sure he'd take 5 in pure.


Your sales are 4.5, 5.4, 5.5, 6.4, 7, 7, ~8, 10, 10.8. I like to use what I call the East German Olympic Ice Skating Rule. They threw out the high and low scores to define the final range of a skater. It's actually a principle of statistics I use irl statistical analysis of data sets. It's not really fair to throw out all 4 low end sales while retaining all 5 high end sales. I can understand some justification for ruling out 4.5 due to the 5.5 pure sale in a day. But I'd probably go with a range of 6.5-10.


Sale 1:

http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198046487200

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/23921353 - sold for Demonflame Bubble Pipe (12 * 0.9 = 10.8)


Sale 2:

http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198152471919?time=1417248000

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/23919271 - sold for SBTWC Cold Killer (11.1 * 0.9 = ~10)


Sale 3:

http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198047299513?time=1417161600

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/23856765 - sold for AF Trilby (unpriced) + DBD Mongolian (outdated)


Sale 4:

http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198039625269?time=1416902400

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/23800908 - sold with duped P. Shadows Tin Topi (2.4, see mini) for Blizzardy BoA (10.25)

Topi = 2.4 * 0.9 = ~2.2 || BoA = 10.25 * 0.9 = ~9.2 || Total value = 7


Sale 5:

http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198132007012?time=1416556800

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/23738006 - sold with the same Topi (2.4) for GGJr Sole Mate (8.4, see mini)

Topi = 2.2 || Sole = 8.4 * 0.9 = ~7.6 || Total value = 5.4


Sale 6:

http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198050785450?time=1416124800

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/23707411 - sold for RA Waxy Wayfinder (sales for this are all over the place really, probably best not to use this)


Sale 7:

http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198074014395?time=1415952000

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/23489352 - sold with Stormy Antlers (Can't track any recent sales :/) for Peace BoA (15.75, see mini)

15.75 * 0.9 = ~14.2. Price for the antlers was before it came a mini so I can't even use that - RIP me


Sale 8:

http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198073722598?time=1414825200

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/23479764 - sold for Amaran. Baron von Havenaplane (4, see mini) + KS Big Kill + 41 ref

Baron = 4 * 0.9 = 3.6 || Big Kill = 10.5 * 0.9 = ~9.5 keys || 41 ref = 41 / 9.88 = ~4 keys || Total value = 3.6 + (13.5 / 15.75 = ~0.9) = 4.5


Sale 9:

http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198007926966?time=1415952000

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/23807430 - sold for Amaran. Reggaelator (mini below at 7.15 * 0.9 = ~6.4)


Sale 10:

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/23806112 - sold for Demonflame AA (unpriced)


Sale 11:

http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198057285786?time=1415001600

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/23524828 - sold for 5 buds + 8 keys (buds were 15.75 = 5.5 buds)


Sale 12:

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/23446378

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/23445616 - sold for duped Stormy 13th Baker Boy (mini at 4.5 * 0.9 = ~4.1) + Aus. Spec KS Sniper Rifle (mini at 3.2 * 0.9 = ~2.9) = 7


Sale 13:

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/23438665 - sold for pure? Would've gone towards a MN Exec


Sellers:

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/23967159 - B/O of 13 (young)

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/23927204 - B/O of 19

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/23466748 - B/O of 25


At this point, we have 13 sales, spooky. Before any minis, there are three valid sales, and one is very low. Assuming the 13 bud seller doesn't sell, it seems plausible that any sale above 13 is an outlier. The other sellers don't tell us squat though.


Topi mini:

http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198119164169?time=1416038400

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/23704043 - sold for PF Full Metal Drill Hat + bunch of low tier KS stuff, looks safe to take 2.4 as that was the B/O

Only sale I can find, other ones are either too old or involve the Kabuto. Taking 2.4


Sole mate mini:

http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198108772249?time=1416470400

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/23765115 - sold for Demonflame Bubble Pipe (12 * 0.9 = 10.8)


http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561197990172296?time=1416211200

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/23741694 - sold for P. Shadows Hive Minder (open suggestion for it at ~6 buds)


http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198072933792?time=1416124800

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/23718258 - sold for C. Bubbles Whoopee (DEFINITE outlier)

This is gonna be ugly as fuck, but 6-10.8 is what I'm taking. Please bear in mind this is just a mini, and yes, these are all the usable sales.


BoA mini:

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/23212401 - sold for duped Flies Pullover (unpriced)


http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198067950675?time=1413615600

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/23211886 - sold for Beams Cannonball (16.75 * 0.9 = ~15.1)


http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198068232858?time=1413615600

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/23160878 - sold for Beams Yellow Belt (14.75 * 0.9 = ~13.3 + Vivid Trophy Belt (3.5 * 0.9 = ~3.2) = 16.5

Taking 15-16.5.


Waxy mini:

http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198066445257?time=1415865600

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/23668263 - sold for GBH Hermes (3.5 * 0.9 = ~3.2)


http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198061239658?time=1415606400

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/23320430 - sold for N&B Sammy + duped PE Wraith + ~1.5 keys in sweets (~10 buds all up?)


http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198061396785?time=1414220400

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/23319905 - sold for Misty Skull Tam (3 * 0.9 = ~2.7)


http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198032623360?time=1414047600

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/23271455 - sold for Smoking Mining Light (1.95) + Whirlwind Schadenfreude (3) + Sulph. Topi (1.95) = 6.9 (no overpay as it was offered)

Sales are nuts. Probably best to leave this out. DISREGARD THIS SECTION EVERYONE, WALK AWAY.


Baron mini:

http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198073722598?time=1415088000

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/23489869 - sold for PF Phantom (B/O was 4, taking that)


http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/23535936 - unclear what exactly it sold for, but it was with an Ooze Sack and a SFB Slick Cut

Other sale involves marked scammer. Taking 4.


Reggae mini:

http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198007926966?time=1417161600

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/23907791 - sold for Sulph. AA (5.8 * 0.9 = ~5.2) + 30 keys (30 / 14 = ~2.1) + 1 bud = 8.3


http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198040898430?time=1416729600

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/23779936 - sold for GGJr Razor Cut (unpriced) + Secret Counterfeit Billycock (5.1 * 0.9 = ~4.6)


http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198012004403?time=1416384000

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/23655541 - sold for RA Dragonborn (outdated, falls within range though)


http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/23595315 - unclear but B/O was 6

Taking 6-8.3


AA mini:

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/23806850 - sold for Ghosts Whirly Warrior + 3 buds


http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/23435972 - sold for Bonzo Conquistador

Can't really use this :/


Baker boy mini:

http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561197967726943?time=1416988800

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/23697039 - sold for ~4.5 in pure

Only findable sale heh. Taking 4.5


Sniper rifle mini:

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/23965375 - B/O of 44 keys (~3.1)

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/23940132 - B/O of 46 keys (~3.3)

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/23970407 - B/O of ~3.5 buds

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/23948867 - B/O of 50 keys (~3.6)

Taking 3.1-3.3 as 3.1 is slightly young


Thank fuck that's all over. Let's take a look at our sales:


4.5, 5.4, 5.5, 6.4, 7, 7, 10, 10.8,


4.5, 5.5 went without a bump. Tightening the range of sales to 6.5 - 10. Thanks for your advice polar ^_^

    the sale to me was for a c hearts bonk duped not for the record not af trilby + dbd mongolian, but suggestion still looks gud with all the proofs, upvoted

      Yeah it'll still fit in the range, thanks for confirming