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Classifieds:
http://backpack.tf/classifieds/?item=Modest%20Pile%20of%20Hat&quality=3&tradable=1&craftable=1 - No sellers :O
(There were 2 sellers @ 6 ref and 1 @ 7 ref)
Solds:
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/23769317 - insta sold for 5 ref - http://gyazo.com/7403c0043fb2bd7b3ab7e57b201a0d02
http://gyazo.com/9a3a537af8cdd6dbcdcb8333d9db3dba - sold whithin 10 hours for 5.33 - http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198075001245
http://gyazo.com/6443b12e32a16df0693c0542626e2912 - sold for 6 ref within 1 day - http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198109946397
http://gyazo.com/3b5bf7052a26d87e234aaea5f35730c1 - sold for 7 ref within 1 day - http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/23779790
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/23783445 - sold whithin about 1 to 2 days for 5.33
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/23809662 - insta sold for 5.33
Sellers:
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/23572032 - 5.33 / 2 weeks
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/23762819 - 5.33 / no bump
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/23686474 - 1 key / 1 week ago, no bump (trade expired)
Others with special levels and/or looking for offers.
Buyers:
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/23560747 - 5 ref, has none in inv - http://www.tf2outpost.com/backpack/453325
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/23324858 - 5 ref, has 1 - http://www.tf2outpost.com/backpack/156243
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/23756741 - 5.33 ref
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/23712968 - 5.44 ref, buying to collect
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/23783166 - 5.33 ref
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/23774891 - 5 ref
All of them are quick-buyers, and if they are paying bp.tf price, it is because it's possible to sell for more.
I think this is worth more, but I don't think my proof is enough to make it raise more.