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Yoyoyoyoyoyoyoyoyoyoyo....yo....yoyoyo....yo.
Check trade.tf, there's barely any at 2.66.
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Quicksold at 2.66:
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/23713345 -1 day
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Sellers above 2.66:
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/23454309 -2.88. 1 week
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Sales at 3:
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/23739589 -Bought by me in 3 hours
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/23739583 -Not in BP, possibly used on item but unsure. 3 hours
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/23728355 -18 hours
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/23719445 -Possibly used on item but unsure. 1 day
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/23707956 -1 day
http://backpack.tf/classifieds/?item=Aged%20Moustache%20Grey&quality=6&tradable=1&craftable=1
x2@2.66r, x1@2.77r, x3@3r, x1@5r
Considering the amount of sales at 3 refined and how quickly they sell and the quicksale at 2.66, it's safe to take 2.66 out of the range.