Price Suggestion
~720 keys
burning
Unusual Killer Exclusive Burning Flames
21 votes up
6 votes down
Advertisement
Related Suggestions

This suggestion was closed by polar.

Comments can no longer be left on this suggestion.

Comments

Short Circuit did this don't know if it right.

But, someone who has the voting power had to do it. Everything is literally a copy paste. I will probably look over it later to see if it is okay myself.


Warning: Yes, the mini suggestions might be lousy, but I'm not going to go in-depth on them on a sale this huge...


The only priceable sale. Let's ignore the Parsec/Kwerty sale...


Sold from Kwerty -> Parsec for:


Harvest Moon Coffin Kit + Cloudy Moon Coffin Kit + Lantern Coffin Kit + Smoking Coffin Kit + Burning Flamenco + Beams Mancer + SPK Australium Axtinguisher + 91 Coffin Kits + #91 Last Breath + #43 Canteen


http://i.gyazo.com/d7ed5c4359bbaac646f3b23f23105761.png

http://i.gyazo.com/9e7740028991b622c95f1b3e97c91233.png

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/20487489


Harvest Moon Coffin: 74

Cloudy Moon Coffin: 90

Lantern Coffin*1:

Smoking Coffin*2: 40

Burning Flamenco: 21.5

Beams Mancer: 17

SPK Australium Axtinguisher*3: 14 keys / 17 keys = 0.8

91 Coffin Kits: 151.06 ref / 8.33 ref = 18.1 keys / 17 keys = 1.1

#91 Last Breath + #43 Canteen*4: 10 keys / 17 keys = 0.6


*1:

*2: No sales at all, other than the Smoking Coffin + a bunch of other stuff for a Knifestorm one, which was updated using the outdated Smoking Coffin price.

*3: Cheapest one on Bp.TF classifieds is 14 keys.

*4: http://oi59.tinypic.com/1z1cxds.jpg


Sold from Parsec -> BlizzardStorm for:


2x Gold Pans + Beams TC + Arcana KE + Hellfire Viewfinder + Darkblaze KE + Secret Bonk + 13th Antlers + Knifestorm Tossle + 72 Conga + Scorching Chief + 72 Flippin + Gifted Holy Grail Schaden + Smoking Mancers + Burning Snaggle + KAW Greased + Screaming Tiger Fresh Brewed + Showstopper Skull + Screaming Buy a Life + Holy Grail Obloot + Aus Rocket + Aus Sniper + Aus Eyelander + Aus Scatter + SF Scatter + FOD Results + SF Medi + 72 Battin + Aus Mini x2 + Steaming Brainiac + SF ROcket + Gifted Aus Grenade + Aus Medi + Aus Knife + Aus Sticky + Aus Flame + Aus Wrench + SF Sniper + Aus Black + Aus Ambassador + SF Sticky + Aus FAN + SF Minigun + Aus Frontier + Gifted SF Knife + SF Bat + SF Wrench + Aus Blut + Aus Axt + Aus SMG + Aus Tomislav + SF Flame + SF Huntsman + SF Grenade + SF Sandvich x2 + SF Ambassador + SF Ubersaw + SF Mackarel + SF Banner + Midnight High Five + Demonflame Buckaroo + Time Warp Sam + Holy Grail Medic Taunt + Mega Strike Square + Cyclone RPS + SGG Deep Fried + Eerie Robo Modest + KAW Neckwear + 272 keys


http://puu.sh/bIsBW/ed7d7b9be5.png

http://puu.sh/bIsDy/a287ec4c96.png

http://puu.sh/bIsEn/c64477432e.png

http://puu.sh/bIsFd/bc743c9f19.png

http://i.gyazo.com/18480a61a8d9bc9311c627c7cc901f36.png


Gold Pan: 77.75

Gold Pan: 77.75

TC: 65

Arcana KE: 54 http://i.gyazo.com/594a74960218e9f3d9e8145f9a810890.png

***Duped Hellfire View + Darkblaze Killer: 172.3

Secret Bonk: 25 http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/21123783 (B/O of 25)

13th Hour Antlers: 47.5 http://backpack.tf/vote/id/540f9f3bb88d88151b8b45ef

Knifestorm Tossle: 13

72 Conga: 10

Scorch Chief: 6.45

72 Flippin: 5.75

Gifted Holy Grail Schaden: 3.5 (Around 65% of 5.35 since it's gifted)

Smoking Mancers: 4

Burning Snaggle: 4

KAW Greased: 4

Tiger Brewed: 3.9

Showstop Skull: 3.5

Screaming Life: 3.25

Grail Obloot: 3.1

Aus Rocket + Sniper + Eyelander + Scatter: 3 + 2.86 + 2.81 + 2.62 = 11.29

SF Scatter: 2.44

FOD Results: 2.25

SF Medi: 2.2

72 Battin: 2

Aus Mini x2: 3.7

Steam Brainiac: 1.75

SF Rocket: 1.75

Gifted Aus Grenade: Around 1.5 since gifted

Australium Medi + Knife + Sticky + Flame + Wrench + Black + Amby + FAN + Frontier + Blut + Axt + SMG + Tomis: 14.28

SF Sniper + SF Sticky + SF Minigun + Gifted SF Knife + SF Bat + SF Wrench + SF Flame + SF Huntsman + SF Grenade + SF Sandvich x2 + SF Ambassador + SF Ubersaw + SF Mackarel + SF Banner: 8.73

Midnight High Five: 3.5 (72 has a B/O of 3.7 http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/22480063 and Midnight is a bit less)

Demonflame Buck: 2.5 (Lantern is ~2.3)

Time Warp Sam: 8 (GBH is outdated, many suggestions at 7-8 so i'll go with 8) http://backpack.tf/stats/Unusual/Samur-Eye/Tradable/Craftable/71

Holy Medic: ~4 http://backpack.tf/vote/id/53c8993a4cd7b86a758b4568

Mega Square: ~4 http://backpack.tf/stats/Unusual/Taunt%3A%20Square%20Dance/Tradable/Craftable/3010

Cyclone RPS: I've seen Showstopper sell for ~4-5ish, so Cyclone is 2.5

SGG Deep Fried: 1.5 ish

Eerie Robo Modest: ~8 (B/O 10 http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/22750701, but normal eerie one can't get that much)

KAW Neckwear: ~7 (B/O 10 http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/22750701, but probably can't get that much)

Pure: 272 / 17 = 16 buds


*** Recently sold from Vox to Blizzard http://i.gyazo.com/83c3a0e9dd9b166df856c3869a012aa0.png

Beams Jefe + Sparkle Luger + Miami TC + Miami Polar + 72 Square Dance + 29 buds + 70 buds in cash + Max


Jefe: 30 (Outdated, but the last price suggestion was based on a gifted one, and Vox has a B/O of 30)

Luger: 20 (Sold for 20 http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/20157972)

TC: 9.15

Polar: Around 15 http://backpack.tf/stats/Unusual/Polar%20Pullover/Tradable/Craftable/61

Square: ~4 (FOD one is priced at 5.2)

Pure: 102

Total: 172.3


However, this is a MASSIVE outlier considering what he has been offered in the past.. will round this down to ~100


TOTAL: 676.64 in unusuals x 0.9 = 608.97 + 16 pure = ~625


Now before we price this at 625.. there are a lot of factors that come into this since BP.TF prices are PURE prices.

1) A lot of these hats/taunts were hard sells (Old effect hats; taunts are all hard sells for pure)

2) On huge sales like this, 0.9 is probably not an appropriate overpay factor.. it probably is closer to 0.7.

3) Blizzardstorm clearly overpaid by a HUGE amount on the Hellfire Viewfinder + Darkblaze KE.. Vox had trouble getting ~50 on the View and ~50 on the KE...


Due to the above factors, I am rounding this sale to 500.


I doubt this suggestion will pass since a huge sale like this requires opinions from a lot of people (especially the admins). But it's worth a try for me :P

    I know I overpayed on the KE and View but I still dont think its only 100 together, great suggestion anyways

      I stole the suggestion haha

      I think he'll read it.

      625 rounding to 500. Overpay is that big? Maybe ask a high tier trade like cranwell, puddington or one of the mods about this overpay.


      Staying neutral(yeah i can vote :D)

        I think it is odd about the amount of overpay calculated but then again the large amount of unusuals you get and the harder it is for some to sell, some might be overpriced. The more overpay the user would want. And 100 buds in unusual overpay isnt that far if some of those unusuals might not get back what they are thought to be worth in a trade that is ~500 buds. (they might have under valued some of the unusuals)


        It was short circuit who did this and it seemed that he had a talk with polar about it.

        I think there is a bigger issue in this and we have to wait for what the staff think about it. I think 500 buds is fine amount to round too.

        Upvote I have vote power x)

        1st one to comment <3

        There are only 25 people who can represent on this, and two of them are banned.

        I can vote

          It's amazing how it sold TWICE in such a short amount of time...

            Yea. I wouldn't have thought it would sell for large amounts back to back

            It's a sad time when you get tired of people adding you to just tell you you're rich...but you can just about afford a single hat. :(

              You probably can if you work on liquidating. :)

              But, it'll be hard gettin this out of collector hands.


              At least you aren't collecting these and have to worry about it.

                I personally can't think of a sillier idea than to convert everything you have into a single $20,000 hat. :P


                (Unless you really like the hat. Which is fine.)

              This is a crazy sale. Somehow I knew my trade with Gorror wouldn't hold the record for too long.

              Congrats to those involved, the Killer Exclusive really is an amazing hat.

                Just leaving my comment here to be part of history.

                  I can't wait to see what eventually tops this... if anything. 500+ buds... damn.

                  If there ever happens any sale at 500 pure ill delete an unusuals. what a waste of nice hats :/

                    When I saw this a couple days ago I had no idea which way to vote, and since I still have no idea I'm just going to abstain. Really looks like an outlier to me personally but you know what they say about assumptions. All I can say is it's a solid suggestion with a lot of thought put into it so good job, and congrats to all parties involved in this massive sale

                      I'm neutral on this suggestion as well, because the user is known to overpay and it comes to question if this will be repeated in the future. However, since it is a rare unusual to see for sale, it also brings to question if it should be handled as a rare collecters item and every sale matters. So, I don't blame you for wanting to abstain because of the uncertainties.

                      This suggestion can't be passed. So many unusual prices here are based on *prediction* (Which tends to be subjective and thus inaccurate) rather than on calculated sales. Take the sale of the viewfinder and darkblaze KE for an example, how accurate is it to round down the value of 172ish to 100? Why not any value below 100, or above 100? Furthermore, quite a few of the unusuals involved in this trade are unpriced in bp.tf, so more accurate mini suggestions must be made.

                        Parsec is now banned/marked on SR: https://steamrep.com/?id=76561198053714004

                          It's tough to figure out what to do here as the high end sale seems like a huge outlier. No offers in the last year have come even close to that sale. Still, I'm not necessarily opposed to reporting the sale as is if the range made any sort of sense, but it's hard to figure out where 500 is really coming from. For one, there is no evidence for the new overpay calculation of 0.7. High end sale by our standard rules might end up being closer to 650 or even 700 after overpay if we actually use the last sales on the viewfinder and the darkblaze KE. Rough estimates on those hats won't be sufficient as that could affect the value here by over 50 buds, which would be significant.


                          Bottom line, we can't determine whether the high end sale is an outlier without a more accurate determination of its value. You don't need to update <10 buds hats that may be outdated. But anything over 10 buds should have more solid justification. If that sale turns out to be 700 and the last three sales on this are 300, 400, and 700, we could all agree 700 is a likely outlier. If the sales are really 300, 400, 550, we could give preference to the new sales and go with 400-550. No way to do that without teasing apart that high end sale.