This suggestion was marked as bad evidence and closed
by neverclever.
There should always be enough evidence to back up the new proposed value.
However, it appears that the evidence is not strong enough, or cherry-picked
in a way that does not represent the actual market value of the item.
Therefore, this suggestion has been closed.
Message left by moderator:
After discussion among the mod team, it is clear from the proof and counterproof that 3.66 is still incredibly easy to buy for, and that anything higher is too difficult to sell for. The two for a key sales seem to be outliers, since there is a huge number available for less
Comments can no longer be left on this suggestion.
Comments
I presently don't have Python available to me in Windows, so I admit there may be duplicates. I've looked over the list, but call them out if you spot any.
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/21185162 <-- Original Listing: "3.66 tod 1.44 ellis each tuxxy 3.00 helmet .44" (Had to use Trade.tf to see the original listing)
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/21077990 <-- Only 1 left in their backpack at their price. The amount of metal in their backpack presently backs up the possibility of them selling all but one.
I can't put 4 refined in the range since there are a bunch of sellers, but more people buying below that price. (If anyone else has supporting proof for 4 Refined, I'll close and make a new suggestion with the price included.)
Does anyone think it'll get to a point where TOD tickets become currency, since they're expendable and backed by actual money like keys?
Down vote.
Outposters always sell for over the initial price, and never under.
Very rare to even find exact pricing.
3.55-.66 is the best there is so far.
Indeed, but the concern isn't just the sellers; it's that people are willing to also purchase them at elevated costs. The fact that it's possible to sell at prices higher than 3.66 is the reason I brought up this suggestion.
If they are desperate to get something of course they will go for a price higher.
Anyone would do that for an item they really want. If we went off of that idea, everything would have a higher price in general.
Well that's sort of how the market works. If everyone is desperate to get themselves a tour of duty ticket, the demand is therefore raised. And with that, the suppliers can up their prices to the point where they can make more profit while still competing with other sellers.
Well Bringing Up the prices on Backpack.tf Would Bring the Prices up even more, downvote from me
If the price suggestion was for a fixed price, more than likely yes. But the suggestion was for a price range. Even so, Backpack.tf is supposed to reflect the status of the market based on community input, not the other way around. (Hence why these suggestions are based on votes.)
Backpack is SUPPOSED to reflect the market, but sadly it doesn't. Trade.tf reflects the market. Backpack.tf is pretty much the bible.tf, which is what everybody uses to base their price off of. THe market reflects backpack.tf not the other way around.
If that's indeed true, backpack.tf should consider removing the first part of the suggestion help to reflect that. :\
Because sellers always over price, regardless of bp.tf's prices. Sometimes you do find good prices, but if the price goes up here, it will be higher in other places regardless. I guess no one can see that though.
Someone's backpack is going up!
Upvote for the massed proof.
Upvote, good proof, and these sell within minutes at 3.66 ref. Mann Up/ KS hype
Upvote, there are even bots buying them for 3,88.
All your evidence is so faulty you don't even notice it just to raise the price. Why put "Claims to have sold 4 tickets at their price." when almost none of your evidence has any true "evidence" showing the transaction actually occurred? I can post a trade right now for 10 keys for a ticket, wait for a few views, and then just take it down and say well job well done sold. Faulty logic at least find more trades that show people acknowledging they bought the item.
If you look closely, that's the reason why those entries are under "Sellers" and not "Sellers with Solds." For each entry, I checked backpacks to ascertain the likelihood of confirmed trades. I put them under "Sellers with Solds" if they had confirmable sales, and "Sellers" if the sales were inconclusive at that time, pending, or if the poster had reported sales, but no conclusive proof from their backpack. In the cases of the inconclusive data for sellers with reported sales by the poster, it was listed under "Sellers" with a footnote.
A seller can indeed say what they want, but their backpacks don't lie.
Ripoff.tf doesn't keep track of all solds, and if it is at a understandable price, people will assume it's sold, especially if there is enough metal /keys and lack of tickets to back it up.
You shouldn't include any sellers when you're trying to raise a price, all you can do is counter-proof yourself. Only include sales.
Best to get all the proof out there instead of trying to deny that there's sellers. Besides, raising prices on unique items is usually the hardest thing you can do, there will always be unsolds at your high end.
Raising prices on unique items is easy on this site. All you need is around 20 solds and you can pretty much dictate the entire market for that item. Because this place for some reason considers 25 3.88 solds as more valuable than 1000 3.66 solds. It's a redundant system.
The reason 25 sales is fine is because there aren't going to be all 300,000 tickets sold at once, people are gonna use them. And these solds are just majority of what they can be found being sold or have sold. And not everything requires 20 solds. You should take a look at a solid key suggestion.
Well obviously there aren't going to be 300,000 sales at once. But if you get say 500 undocumented (not tf2ripoffpost) sales for 3.66. Are those nothing compared to the say 20 or so documented solds for 3.88? At what point do quickbuyers get taken into account?
Heck, we still have a full page of classifies unsold at 3.66. This entire suggestion is based on quickbuyers.
The point of suggesting with only so many sales is because we just need a majority of people who sell and are willing to buy for that. Regardless of anything there will be people who sell higher and lower. Not to mention there are a lot of people out there who buy these for items such as miscs which really doesn't help (except maybe due to now having the random craft hat price- it's a confusing thing.), as well as there's only 20 pages to look through for this range, with quite a lot of inactive trades. If anything I'd say he has the majority of those on this suggestion both in the original post and comments (look below for reference). Sure it may not be all of the trades/solds out there, but it's a pretty secure amount of proof.
He also has 3.66 still in the range. 3.66 ain't going anywhere.
And to your complaint about quickbuyers, it's only obvious people are going to instantly buy low prices and high prices if they so demand, but that's just people mindlessly buying things. The point of quickbuying is to get something you want very much so no matter the price, or buying it at a really good deal and make profit off of it, which lots of people do.
The issue I have with this is that the 3.66 IS going to go somewhere as soon as this offer gets accepted. Everybody will immediately switch from 3.66 sales to 3.88. Then 3.66 will be forgotten and considered a quicksale. And then bam. Someone will suggest for this to get accepted as 3.88 flat. That's my issue with this trade. It's essentially changing the price for an item that does not need the price to be changed. Simply due to the rare occasion that someone will pay an extra 2 scrap for convenience.
The point of keeping 3.66 ref there in the range is not to disregard it and say it's a quicksale, it's to say that it's possible, but on the lower end of a normal trade. Yes it will influence some people to change their prices, but that's what happens when the demand and supply change. The demand is always going to be high because of Two Cities and the supply is going to be ever dropping down because of Two Cities. Either way, it's going to go down. If you simply don't like to pay with more metal, get money and buy them off the community market and stop bugging the metal buyers/sellers.
The current lower ends of ticket trades is 3.44, NOT 3.66. 3.66 is the current normal. Not the lower end. 3.88 is the extreme outlier. This trade should've had 3.44-3.88 if it was going to be true. Even you have to be able to see the manipulation here.
And just because I'm refuting a point doesn't not mean I'm bugging people.
3.44 is a quicksale. As in it's considered to be sold too fast to be a thought out trade. If it's sold too fast to be thought out, then the person is considered getting a good deal and is able to make far easier profit.
And if 3.88 is considered a normal sale (as this suggestion will create the implication of) then everybody should be buying up 3.66 quick because it's easy profit. Can you see now why this suggestion is flawed?
Can you see now this happens with everything that goes up in price? Look at the keys. People uncrate with them, buy unusuals and buds, and pretty much everything else that's at least a key. Just as the Tour of Duty Tickets are, these are being used widely, Their demand is always going up and supplies go down. Same with Tour of Duty Tickets. Simple economics. It would be nice if 25% of the people didn't get upset about not being as much able to afford virtual items. If they're so concerned about how much these items are, I'd recommend taking more than a minute to go downstairs and grab food and then come back to their computer. TF2 does not have any influence on real world economy, and vice versa. If you're so offended people are raising the price of one item by $0.05, please reconsider how you look at the economy.
o noes yu hav beestud mi! By assaulting my own personal image you have most certainly won the discussion! Alas! I am no more! Can we actually get back to the conversation now? Because if I am really sad for worrying about the rise of the value of an item by "5 cents", then why are you so eager to defend the rise of the item?
I'm not defending it.You're just making a big deal out of it.
Do you see the issue I have with this? It's a stable item that has a stable price. And the occasional outlier of quickbuyer/salers by just 1-2 scrap. This suggestion is redundant. And if anything is just price manipulation.
> price manipulation.
I cannot stress how much it doesn't matter how many items they have. So what if he raises his backpack by 1 scrap*47? Nobody is getting harmed by it.
YOu think I honestly care about how many the OP has? Because I don't.
It's price manipulation because it'll create the stipulation than 3.66 is the low end and that 3.88 is a common sale. That's what I mean by price manipulation, but you really did try to change what I said. Good work.
I didn't try to. You made it sound like it.
Then what a shame that you misread my statements. Can we move on to the discussion at hand now?
Still plenty of 3.66 sellers. Downvote.
Thats why it's still in the range, 3.88 is possible as shown
>3.66 is still in range therefore it won't be an issue
>suggestion gets accepted
>everybody switches to selling at the new "norm" of 3.88
>3.66 now considered quicksell
>suggestion comes in for 3.88 flat
>Thats why it's still in the range
>Still plenty of 3.66 sellers
Seems legit ( ͡° ͜ʖ ͡°)
I've sold 10 ToDs at 4 ref each within a week. Upvote.
Amazing proof I should say, you show sellers and solds to support your low-range, and solds to support the hige-range, liked the idea of keeping range here and not going to 3.88 imidiently, upboat for me.
3.66 is a great price I see no reason to change, the people selling for about 3.33
Prove then. Sow us people selling these for 3.33
Yes sow us. ( ͡° ͜ʖ ͡°) Though it'd be great if you could, easy flipping profit there.
ok!, already did, so let's go, let's raise the price
so each refined metal is around 0,21 euros on Steam market 0,21x 8,55 = 1.79 euros price of one key on mann co store, each ticket is 0,69 (mann co store price), ticket price is around 3,33 ref, 0,21x 3,33 = 0,69 i think is cheaper buy on mann co store
all prices in Euros
C'mon last minute 50% off Summer Sale, Valve!
Upvote. I wouldn't dream of selling for 3,66
I buy tickets all the time, and I feel this is accurate enough. Though I've never had to buy at 3.88. 90% of the time there will be some at 3.66/3.77 on dispenser.tf, or you can find a bot selling at 3.77. 3.88 right now is really if you need one right this second, and none of the bots/dispenser.tf is in stock.
1. you can buy this item for 3.55 - 3.66 in backpack.tf
2. you have to wait 1 day that you can sell 2 tickets for 3,77
That looks to be a quicksale, and I'd be willing to wager they weren't selling their tickets for 3.33 the entire time. ( Also, from the +rep you put on their profile, looks like you capitalized on it too. Good find. :) )
Upon further investigation, it looks like they were quick-selling through multiple other ads, so they may not have even sold all their tickets through that one ad you listed until they changed the price:
57 Views in 4 hours, and at least 4 confirmed tickets traded.
yeah but anyway you can buy this item for 3,55-3,66 ref in backpack.tf2
I'm not denying the possibility that sales exist below 3.66-3.88; I'm asserting that sales below the range are quicksells, do not accurately reflect the value of the item by volume of confirmed sales, and that sales within the range I've specified are regularly possible. Of course, the closer you get to common price, the slower the sale will be.
However, I've still observed 3.55 to be a quick-sale price. Here's a recent sale at 3.55:
I see I need to clarify this for some :D. I was selling paint for 4ref and got 4 ref offer for the ticket (from the same buyer) even though I wasn't selling the ticket. So yeah people do pay 4 ref.
To Agree, They get sold, But it take Year's, You own 47 of them and some how i see how u are trying to boost ur proift anyways, Pepole who sell for 3.66 Get all their Tickets Sold as fast as quicksells:
Still, Come with the suggestion when u sold ur tickets for that price, if u cant sell em u would come with a lower value, U gotta think. most down votes will happen cause of they see ur amount of tickets
I figured at some point someone would make an issue of this. :\
If anything, I feel the amount of tickets I hold should serve as proof that I've dealt with them regularly, and know what I'm talking about. I know for a fact I can sell my tickets for the range I've specified, but I'm not. I don't have a particular interest in profiting from it, and intend on keeping my tickets. I simply brought the proposal up from what I observed. The main reason why I even have so many is because 1.) I sold all my keys and metal for them and 2.) there is something in Mann Up mode I want. More tickets increase the probability of me getting it.
If my having so many tickets is an issue, I can readily just get rid of all of them for the duration of the poll, or have someone resubmit the suggestion that has none. But I figured people would actually vote based on the proof given, and not hypothetical notions on the motives behind the individual making the suggestion. :\
I don't understand why all the fuss. He's keeping 3,66 in the range and by adding 3,88 we only acknowledge a reality. You'll still sell for 3,66 if you'll need to sell fast and pay 3,77 or 3,88 if you'll want to buy fast. And btw good job
Thanks. :)
It's because of the long term effects of accepting this suggestion.
>3.66 is still in range therefore it won't be an issue
>suggestion gets accepted
>everybody switches to selling at the new "norm" of 3.88
>3.66 now considered quicksell
>suggestion comes in for 3.88 flat
>suggestion will get accepted
I understand what you're saying but we can't deny higher sales are happening. And something should be done with blank listings that force inexperienced sellers to sell below market value. When ever I look there are 1/3 of sellers that don't sell or have done so hours ago. I went on Outpost just for kicks and couldn't belive how much are some sellers asking for a ticket. If anyone is getting ripped of is that "noob" that wants to buy a hat and does a listing for 3,44 just to be the first in line. And with keys dropping I doubt we'll see 3,88 flat any day soon.
I agree that we shouldn't disregard the sales, but I honestly think anything at 3.88 is a quick buy. And shouldn't be in there. It takes ages to sell for 3.88 (unless you're lucky enough to find a desperate sod who really needs a ticket quick). It just seems like too high of a rise. 3.66-3.77 would be more accurate for general sales. Especially if 3.55s are being counted as quicksales.
http://bazaar.tf/trade/910151 It's linked to my Outpost trade. Sold 2 for 3.77 each in 17h, so that means it's possible, but not fast. 3.66 in the other hand is rather fast. Don't know about 3.88... Ehh, probably staying neutral until the end of time. But yeah, higher than 3.66 is possible.
giving these a high end is only for serving his purposes, people will still sell high and buy low..downvote
Who's purposes? You don't mean mine, do you? o.O
i see my trade is already there. Sold 10+ tickets alone in the last 2 days. So its a clear upvote
There are currently 13 for 3.66, half of which are over a day old. 14 for 3.77, more than half are over a day old. and the youngest 3.88 seller is over 10 hours old.
I guess I'll post up screenies later, just too lazy to do it now.
July 14th - 2 for 1 key
July 13th - 2 for 1 key
July 13th - 1 for 4 refined
July 12th - 2 for a soldier's stash
July 11th - 2 for 1 key
July 11th - 1 for 4 refined
July 10th - 3 for 1.5 keys in items.
July 10th - 1 for 4 refined
July 10th - 1 for 4 refined
July 9th - 1 for 4 refined
I have a lot more going back even into 2-3 weeks ago also.
People pay for convenience. Basic economics.
Man, I wish other sites had system to show done trades. TF2Outpost is often just ripoffs on top of quickbuyers
I don't see why this would need a raise. Rarely have I seen tickets sell for more than 3.66 (except of tf2ripoffpost).
And I can generally get them 3.55. A raise just seems redundant and will generally just make easy profit for horders. Right OP?
And for such a sought after item. It's easy to expect people to pay a lot more to get it just because they are lazy. Anybody remember the whole key price raise of doom that happened a while ago? Just because someone introduced consistent bots into backpack.tf for keys.
same here i dont understant this if you can still buy it for 3.33 - 3,66 in bp why should we make a raise it makes no sense and have fun to downvote my reply but its ture!!!
Exactly! It should matter how many of each is going on for sales. I think 1000 sales at 3.66/backpack value are far more important than 30 or so sales at a higher price. No point in raising something based on people who are lazy enough to quickbuy.
My guess someone got ripped off buying 47 tickets and is now trying to make some money back
That would be a good guess, but it's incorrect if you're pertaining to the tickets I have. Even so, as I've said before, I'm going to be burning through my tickets to get something through Mann Up mode. Once I finish my work projects and get time off, that's what I'll be doing. If you'd like, you're welcome to monitor my backpack and watch these tickets turned into fabricators, kits and robot parts over the coming month or so.
The only people making money off of my tickets would be Valve.
owns 47 :T i dont want to mean price manipulation but... suspicious D:
You're also welcome to follow my backpack over the next month or so, if it would help to calm your suspicions. I've laid out my intentions multiple times on this thread.
I don't quite understand why tickets are that expensive lately, they used to be about 2.11 if I'm not mistaken and went up to 3.33 etc. after the two cities update which had a good dropping before, but nowadays it has a quite awfull and disgusting drops. And I think the people who try to sell them for 4ref or 2tickets per one key, that they either have a serious problem or they are just greedy...
Anyway, yesterday I bought over 20 tickets (one guy sold me 16 by himself) for 3.66 each. It is not hard to find sellers... http://i.imgur.com/VyeqfmD.png
Also, downvote.
HE HAS 47, PRICE MANIPULATION
xd
Constructive criticism would probably be appreciated more for something like this, but thanks for your feedback anyway. :)
Great proof! Upvoted.
Great proof, you're getting my vote.
Hundreds of solds on my bot. Even though bots aren't good proof, they are selling like hot cakes. Upvote.
What is the sense of disagreement if you show no valid counters ?
3/4 of the 1st page actually filled with 3.66 refs sellers, more than 2 pages are below 4 refs, number of solds at 4 refs steeply declining, I think 3.66 - 3.88 is just fine.
I don't know if you know but sometimes the mann co store is just plainly cheaper than players trying to rip other players off. If you haven't noticed, outpost has only been successful because of the significantly lower prices it offers compared to the market. Now analyzing your data, the price you wish to implement is higher than the retail price which neither works in games or real life.
Secondly, the amount of tickets you have suggest you're trying to profit off the community. This is an automatic biased suggestion considering the quantity of tickets you have been hording.
The Mann Co. Store sells tickets for 0.99 USD. The high end of my specified range is 3.88 refined. If refined is valued at 0.24 to 0.25 USD, then the highest value in my range with the highest value of refined would be (3.88*0.25) or 0.97 USD. Trading outside of the Mann Co. Store would still be cheaper within my specified range.
Also, I've made my intentions very clear on this thread. Rather than repeat them, I would encourage you to scroll up to view them. I've also extended invitations for people to follow my backpack if they feel so inclined, to ease their suspicions of my motives. You are welcome to do so as well.
Its not like you have 47 though, so you're definitely not doing this to make a ton of profit or anything.
the number of tickets he has isn't particularly relevant to whether or not the proof is good
Yes, but he is more likely to raise the price if he has a high number :P
Im sure 5 refined means a lot to him.
Or maybe he plays a lot of MvM? People mass buy tickets to do a lot of tours, you know. It's not always a "time to raise my backpack value" thing.
I do in fact. :) I haven't had the time to play recently, but there's a group I'm a part of that regularly MvMs. Unfortunately, due to me hitting crunchtime for two projects at once, I haven't been able to play it. Trading and commenting is easy through the web, but actually using the tickets require Steam and TF2, which I don't have access to away from home.
I presently don't have Python available to me in Windows, so I admit there may be duplicates. I've looked over the list, but call them out if you spot any.
Target Range: 3.66 - 3.88
Backpack classifieds:
http://backpack.tf/classifieds?item=Tour%20of%20Duty%20Ticket&quality=6&tradable=1&craftable=0
3.66 Refined (Present value)
Sellers:
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/21187026
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/21185849
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/21118942
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/21171011
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/21182099
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/21182601
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/21182989
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/21176756 <-- Claims to have sold 4 tickets at their price.
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/21183631
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/21183057
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/21194682
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/20453852 <-- Claims to have sold 58 at their price; Pending Sale at bottom
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/20624186
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/21095639
Sellers with Solds:
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/21185432
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/21185162 <-- Original Listing: "3.66 tod 1.44 ellis each tuxxy 3.00 helmet .44" (Had to use Trade.tf to see the original listing)
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/20612930
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/21191596
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/20772505
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/21170585
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/21173035
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/20990515 <-- Claims to have sold all tickets; confirmed at least one as sold (two still remain in their backpack).
3.77 Refined
Sellers:
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/21190498
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/21184466
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/20684533
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/21037455
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/21197690
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/19665041
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/20932828 <-- A bunch of people added to trade them, but I can't confirm if they turned into sales.
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/21147302 <-- Claims to have sold 16 at their price.
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/20308401
Sellers with Solds:
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/20513832
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/21134859
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/20855861
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/15967048
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/20684533
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/20850922
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/18814514
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/21160819
3.88 Refined
Sellers:
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/20827452
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/20931662
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/16390288
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/21140669
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/20999927
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/21134622
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/21135948
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/20994111
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/21167972 <-- The ticket belongs to someone else now, but I can't confirm if it was through this trade.
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/21151345
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/21189999
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/21093176
Sellers with Solds:
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/20268836 <-- Ran out of tickets at their stated selling price.
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/20585635
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/20401068 <-- 2 Tickets, .44 Refined ((3.66+(0.44/2)*2) for 1 Key
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/21077990 <-- Only 1 left in their backpack at their price. The amount of metal in their backpack presently backs up the possibility of them selling all but one.
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/21135843
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/20585635
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/21001609 <-- Claims to have 20 left, but they actually have 8, and enough metal to back up possible sales.
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/21171781
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/21148965
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/21140669
I can't put 4 refined in the range since there are a bunch of sellers, but more people buying below that price. (If anyone else has supporting proof for 4 Refined, I'll close and make a new suggestion with the price included.)
4.00 Refined
Sellers:
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/17674775
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/21184975
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/21139442
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/21023020
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/20990102
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/21128369
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/21105651
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/21126566
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/20687236
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/21093235
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/20997195
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/21054051
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/21048714
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/21037088
Sellers with Solds:
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/19904951
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/20682752
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/21145339
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/20899244
Higher than range, but worth a mention:
2 Tickets, 1 Refined for 1 Key
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/20917314 <-- Equates to the author buying keys for 8.33, common sales reinforce the recent key price change.
2 for 1 Key (or 4.22-4.33 each)
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/15934749 <-- Someone offered a Bill's for 12 tickets. Are people that desperate?
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/21180256 <-- Claims to have sold a lot at 4 Refined before raising price to 4.33, and then sold two more.
Notes:
Does anyone think it'll get to a point where TOD tickets become currency, since they're expendable and backed by actual money like keys?
Down vote.
Outposters always sell for over the initial price, and never under.
Very rare to even find exact pricing.
3.55-.66 is the best there is so far.
Indeed, but the concern isn't just the sellers; it's that people are willing to also purchase them at elevated costs. The fact that it's possible to sell at prices higher than 3.66 is the reason I brought up this suggestion.
If they are desperate to get something of course they will go for a price higher.
Anyone would do that for an item they really want. If we went off of that idea, everything would have a higher price in general.
Well that's sort of how the market works. If everyone is desperate to get themselves a tour of duty ticket, the demand is therefore raised. And with that, the suppliers can up their prices to the point where they can make more profit while still competing with other sellers.
Well Bringing Up the prices on Backpack.tf Would Bring the Prices up even more, downvote from me
If the price suggestion was for a fixed price, more than likely yes. But the suggestion was for a price range. Even so, Backpack.tf is supposed to reflect the status of the market based on community input, not the other way around. (Hence why these suggestions are based on votes.)
Backpack is SUPPOSED to reflect the market, but sadly it doesn't. Trade.tf reflects the market. Backpack.tf is pretty much the bible.tf, which is what everybody uses to base their price off of. THe market reflects backpack.tf not the other way around.
If that's indeed true, backpack.tf should consider removing the first part of the suggestion help to reflect that. :\
http://backpack.tf/help/suggestions
Yeah. Kind of sad really,
That's what I mean.
Because sellers always over price, regardless of bp.tf's prices. Sometimes you do find good prices, but if the price goes up here, it will be higher in other places regardless. I guess no one can see that though.
Someone's backpack is going up!
Upvote for the massed proof.
Upvote, good proof, and these sell within minutes at 3.66 ref. Mann Up/ KS hype
Upvote, there are even bots buying them for 3,88.
All your evidence is so faulty you don't even notice it just to raise the price. Why put "Claims to have sold 4 tickets at their price." when almost none of your evidence has any true "evidence" showing the transaction actually occurred? I can post a trade right now for 10 keys for a ticket, wait for a few views, and then just take it down and say well job well done sold. Faulty logic at least find more trades that show people acknowledging they bought the item.
If you look closely, that's the reason why those entries are under "Sellers" and not "Sellers with Solds." For each entry, I checked backpacks to ascertain the likelihood of confirmed trades. I put them under "Sellers with Solds" if they had confirmable sales, and "Sellers" if the sales were inconclusive at that time, pending, or if the poster had reported sales, but no conclusive proof from their backpack. In the cases of the inconclusive data for sellers with reported sales by the poster, it was listed under "Sellers" with a footnote.
A seller can indeed say what they want, but their backpacks don't lie.
Ripoff.tf doesn't keep track of all solds, and if it is at a understandable price, people will assume it's sold, especially if there is enough metal /keys and lack of tickets to back it up.
I am surprised nobody has mentioned trade.tf http://www.trade.tf/price/725/-1/None they state 3.66
You shouldn't include any sellers when you're trying to raise a price, all you can do is counter-proof yourself. Only include sales.
Best to get all the proof out there instead of trying to deny that there's sellers. Besides, raising prices on unique items is usually the hardest thing you can do, there will always be unsolds at your high end.
Raising prices on unique items is easy on this site. All you need is around 20 solds and you can pretty much dictate the entire market for that item. Because this place for some reason considers 25 3.88 solds as more valuable than 1000 3.66 solds. It's a redundant system.
The reason 25 sales is fine is because there aren't going to be all 300,000 tickets sold at once, people are gonna use them. And these solds are just majority of what they can be found being sold or have sold. And not everything requires 20 solds. You should take a look at a solid key suggestion.
Well obviously there aren't going to be 300,000 sales at once. But if you get say 500 undocumented (not tf2ripoffpost) sales for 3.66. Are those nothing compared to the say 20 or so documented solds for 3.88? At what point do quickbuyers get taken into account?
Heck, we still have a full page of classifies unsold at 3.66. This entire suggestion is based on quickbuyers.
The point of suggesting with only so many sales is because we just need a majority of people who sell and are willing to buy for that. Regardless of anything there will be people who sell higher and lower. Not to mention there are a lot of people out there who buy these for items such as miscs which really doesn't help (except maybe due to now having the random craft hat price- it's a confusing thing.), as well as there's only 20 pages to look through for this range, with quite a lot of inactive trades. If anything I'd say he has the majority of those on this suggestion both in the original post and comments (look below for reference). Sure it may not be all of the trades/solds out there, but it's a pretty secure amount of proof.
He also has 3.66 still in the range. 3.66 ain't going anywhere.
And to your complaint about quickbuyers, it's only obvious people are going to instantly buy low prices and high prices if they so demand, but that's just people mindlessly buying things. The point of quickbuying is to get something you want very much so no matter the price, or buying it at a really good deal and make profit off of it, which lots of people do.
The issue I have with this is that the 3.66 IS going to go somewhere as soon as this offer gets accepted. Everybody will immediately switch from 3.66 sales to 3.88. Then 3.66 will be forgotten and considered a quicksale. And then bam. Someone will suggest for this to get accepted as 3.88 flat. That's my issue with this trade. It's essentially changing the price for an item that does not need the price to be changed. Simply due to the rare occasion that someone will pay an extra 2 scrap for convenience.
The point of keeping 3.66 ref there in the range is not to disregard it and say it's a quicksale, it's to say that it's possible, but on the lower end of a normal trade. Yes it will influence some people to change their prices, but that's what happens when the demand and supply change. The demand is always going to be high because of Two Cities and the supply is going to be ever dropping down because of Two Cities. Either way, it's going to go down. If you simply don't like to pay with more metal, get money and buy them off the community market and stop bugging the metal buyers/sellers.
The current lower ends of ticket trades is 3.44, NOT 3.66. 3.66 is the current normal. Not the lower end. 3.88 is the extreme outlier. This trade should've had 3.44-3.88 if it was going to be true. Even you have to be able to see the manipulation here.
And just because I'm refuting a point doesn't not mean I'm bugging people.
3.44 is a quicksale. As in it's considered to be sold too fast to be a thought out trade. If it's sold too fast to be thought out, then the person is considered getting a good deal and is able to make far easier profit.
And if 3.88 is considered a normal sale (as this suggestion will create the implication of) then everybody should be buying up 3.66 quick because it's easy profit. Can you see now why this suggestion is flawed?
Can you see now this happens with everything that goes up in price? Look at the keys. People uncrate with them, buy unusuals and buds, and pretty much everything else that's at least a key. Just as the Tour of Duty Tickets are, these are being used widely, Their demand is always going up and supplies go down. Same with Tour of Duty Tickets. Simple economics. It would be nice if 25% of the people didn't get upset about not being as much able to afford virtual items. If they're so concerned about how much these items are, I'd recommend taking more than a minute to go downstairs and grab food and then come back to their computer. TF2 does not have any influence on real world economy, and vice versa. If you're so offended people are raising the price of one item by $0.05, please reconsider how you look at the economy.
o noes yu hav beestud mi! By assaulting my own personal image you have most certainly won the discussion! Alas! I am no more! Can we actually get back to the conversation now? Because if I am really sad for worrying about the rise of the value of an item by "5 cents", then why are you so eager to defend the rise of the item?
I'm not defending it.You're just making a big deal out of it.
Do you see the issue I have with this? It's a stable item that has a stable price. And the occasional outlier of quickbuyer/salers by just 1-2 scrap. This suggestion is redundant. And if anything is just price manipulation.
> price manipulation.
I cannot stress how much it doesn't matter how many items they have. So what if he raises his backpack by 1 scrap*47? Nobody is getting harmed by it.
YOu think I honestly care about how many the OP has? Because I don't.
It's price manipulation because it'll create the stipulation than 3.66 is the low end and that 3.88 is a common sale. That's what I mean by price manipulation, but you really did try to change what I said. Good work.
I didn't try to. You made it sound like it.
Then what a shame that you misread my statements. Can we move on to the discussion at hand now?
Still plenty of 3.66 sellers. Downvote.
Thats why it's still in the range, 3.88 is possible as shown
>3.66 is still in range therefore it won't be an issue
>suggestion gets accepted
>everybody switches to selling at the new "norm" of 3.88
>3.66 now considered quicksell
>suggestion comes in for 3.88 flat
>Thats why it's still in the range
>Still plenty of 3.66 sellers
Seems legit ( ͡° ͜ʖ ͡°)
I've sold 10 ToDs at 4 ref each within a week. Upvote.
2 ToD for 1 key
http://i.imgur.com/C0RuNAq.jpg
Amazing proof I should say, you show sellers and solds to support your low-range, and solds to support the hige-range, liked the idea of keeping range here and not going to 3.88 imidiently, upboat for me.
3.66 is a great price I see no reason to change, the people selling for about 3.33
Prove then. Sow us people selling these for 3.33
Yes sow us. ( ͡° ͜ʖ ͡°) Though it'd be great if you could, easy flipping profit there.
How to become successful:
1: Never reveal all your secrets
2:
I do not know if it's counter proof relevant but i bought 5 at 3.33 on my trade for my journey to australium here http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/21036265#latest
If you got them from people selling them, then it's fine.
If you had a trade for buying them at 3.33, then no, it's not valid.
Meh sadly I think they will rise: mann up, that was a daily friend, will become a weekly one I guess.
I bought 8 tickets atm and I think I'll enjoy them :(
Just sold 2 for a key in 17 hours.
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/21185777#latest
http://imgur.com/zfzN172
over 4 ref each - outlier
ok!, already did, so let's go, let's raise the price
C'mon last minute 50% off Summer Sale, Valve!
Upvote. I wouldn't dream of selling for 3,66
I buy tickets all the time, and I feel this is accurate enough. Though I've never had to buy at 3.88. 90% of the time there will be some at 3.66/3.77 on dispenser.tf, or you can find a bot selling at 3.77. 3.88 right now is really if you need one right this second, and none of the bots/dispenser.tf is in stock.
1. you can buy this item for 3.55 - 3.66 in backpack.tf
2. you have to wait 1 day that you can sell 2 tickets for 3,77
i would say 3,55 - 3,66 ref
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/20485425
That looks to be a quicksale, and I'd be willing to wager they weren't selling their tickets for 3.33 the entire time. ( Also, from the +rep you put on their profile, looks like you capitalized on it too. Good find. :) )
Upon further investigation, it looks like they were quick-selling through multiple other ads, so they may not have even sold all their tickets through that one ad you listed until they changed the price:
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/20482193
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/20480821
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/21046075
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/21210826 <-- Not a quicksale, but a sold which still reinforces the low-end of the range.
To show just how quick 3.33 sales go, here's a clean recent sale:
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/21260812
57 Views in 4 hours, and at least 4 confirmed tickets traded.
yeah but anyway you can buy this item for 3,55-3,66 ref in backpack.tf2
I'm not denying the possibility that sales exist below 3.66-3.88; I'm asserting that sales below the range are quicksells, do not accurately reflect the value of the item by volume of confirmed sales, and that sales within the range I've specified are regularly possible. Of course, the closer you get to common price, the slower the sale will be.
However, I've still observed 3.55 to be a quick-sale price. Here's a recent sale at 3.55:
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/21250702 <-- Sold in 20 minutes from original time of post.
http://i.imgur.com/ueDwupe.jpg I was selling paint not the ticket
I see I need to clarify this for some :D. I was selling paint for 4ref and got 4 ref offer for the ticket (from the same buyer) even though I wasn't selling the ticket. So yeah people do pay 4 ref.
To Agree, They get sold, But it take Year's, You own 47 of them and some how i see how u are trying to boost ur proift anyways, Pepole who sell for 3.66 Get all their Tickets Sold as fast as quicksells:
Proof:
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/21098798
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/19219987
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/20957341
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/21274818
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/19432720
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/21256750
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/21259991
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/21231505
Would not Vote yes
I do own 47, but my price suggestion is based on the state of the market, not how many I own.
In response to your ads:
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/21098798 <-- Confirmed solds.
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/19219987 <-- No tickets in stock
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/20957341 <-- One ticket remaining at their price.
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/21274818 <-- Posted 1 hour ago; too early to show as an unsold, but proof for common price point.
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/19432720 <-- Undetermined how long they've been selling at 3.66; 4 remaining.
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/21256750 <-- Less than one day old at 3.66
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/21259991 <-- All tickets sold; Not their only selling ad: http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/21082221
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/21231505 <-- All tickets sold; not their only selling ad: http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/21220383
Still, Come with the suggestion when u sold ur tickets for that price, if u cant sell em u would come with a lower value, U gotta think. most down votes will happen cause of they see ur amount of tickets
I figured at some point someone would make an issue of this. :\
If anything, I feel the amount of tickets I hold should serve as proof that I've dealt with them regularly, and know what I'm talking about. I know for a fact I can sell my tickets for the range I've specified, but I'm not. I don't have a particular interest in profiting from it, and intend on keeping my tickets. I simply brought the proposal up from what I observed. The main reason why I even have so many is because 1.) I sold all my keys and metal for them and 2.) there is something in Mann Up mode I want. More tickets increase the probability of me getting it.
If my having so many tickets is an issue, I can readily just get rid of all of them for the duration of the poll, or have someone resubmit the suggestion that has none. But I figured people would actually vote based on the proof given, and not hypothetical notions on the motives behind the individual making the suggestion. :\
I don't understand why all the fuss. He's keeping 3,66 in the range and by adding 3,88 we only acknowledge a reality. You'll still sell for 3,66 if you'll need to sell fast and pay 3,77 or 3,88 if you'll want to buy fast. And btw good job
Thanks. :)
It's because of the long term effects of accepting this suggestion.
>3.66 is still in range therefore it won't be an issue
>suggestion gets accepted
>everybody switches to selling at the new "norm" of 3.88
>3.66 now considered quicksell
>suggestion comes in for 3.88 flat
>suggestion will get accepted
I understand what you're saying but we can't deny higher sales are happening. And something should be done with blank listings that force inexperienced sellers to sell below market value. When ever I look there are 1/3 of sellers that don't sell or have done so hours ago. I went on Outpost just for kicks and couldn't belive how much are some sellers asking for a ticket. If anyone is getting ripped of is that "noob" that wants to buy a hat and does a listing for 3,44 just to be the first in line. And with keys dropping I doubt we'll see 3,88 flat any day soon.
I agree that we shouldn't disregard the sales, but I honestly think anything at 3.88 is a quick buy. And shouldn't be in there. It takes ages to sell for 3.88 (unless you're lucky enough to find a desperate sod who really needs a ticket quick). It just seems like too high of a rise. 3.66-3.77 would be more accurate for general sales. Especially if 3.55s are being counted as quicksales.
http://bazaar.tf/trade/910151 It's linked to my Outpost trade. Sold 2 for 3.77 each in 17h, so that means it's possible, but not fast. 3.66 in the other hand is rather fast. Don't know about 3.88... Ehh, probably staying neutral until the end of time. But yeah, higher than 3.66 is possible.
giving these a high end is only for serving his purposes, people will still sell high and buy low..downvote
Who's purposes? You don't mean mine, do you? o.O
i see my trade is already there. Sold 10+ tickets alone in the last 2 days. So its a clear upvote
http://backpack.tf/classifieds?item=Tour%20of%20Duty%20Ticket&quality=6&tradable=1&craftable=0
There are currently 13 for 3.66, half of which are over a day old. 14 for 3.77, more than half are over a day old. and the youngest 3.88 seller is over 10 hours old.
3.66 Refined (Present value)
Sellers:
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/21187026 - sold
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/21185849 - sold
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/21118942 - sold
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/21171011 - sold
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/21182099 - sold
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/21182601 - sold
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/21182989 - sold
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/21176756 <-- Claims to have sold 4 tickets at their price.
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/21183631 - sold
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/21183057 - sold
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/21194682 - sold
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/20453852 <-- Claims to have sold 58 at their price; Pending Sale at bottom
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/20624186 - sold
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/21095639 - sold
3.77 Refined
Sellers:
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/21190498 - sold 7
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/21184466 - sold
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/20684533 - buys for 3.55, sells for profit
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/21037455 - buys for 3.55, sells for profit
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/21197690 - bot
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/19665041 - bot
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/20932828 <-- A bunch of people added to trade them, but I can't confirm if they turned into sales.
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/21147302 <-- Claims to have sold 16 at their price.
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/20308401 - buys for 3.66, sells for profit. closed due to inactivity
3.88 Refined
Sellers:
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/20827452 - closed due to inactivity
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/20931662 - closed due to inactivity
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/16390288 - 11 unsold
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/21140669 - bot
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/20999927 - buying for 3.66, selling for profit
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/21134622 - unsold for 3 days
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/21135948 - unbumped for 7 days
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/20994111 - unbumped for 7 days
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/21167972 <-- The ticket belongs to someone else now, but I can't confirm if it was through this trade.
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/21151345 - unbumped for 4 days
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/21189999 - unbumped for 5 days
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/21093176 - sold 6/7
Adding to sales for 3.66 http://i.imgur.com/G99uCwH.png 11 ref for 3
Also http://www.trade.tf/price/725/-1/None 3.66
I've been selling 2 for 1 key or 4 refined and had pretty good success doing so for a while now.
16 tickets sold for between 4 refined and 4.33 refined just in the last 9 days.
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/19997959#latest
I guess I'll post up screenies later, just too lazy to do it now.
July 14th - 2 for 1 key
July 13th - 2 for 1 key
July 13th - 1 for 4 refined
July 12th - 2 for a soldier's stash
July 11th - 2 for 1 key
July 11th - 1 for 4 refined
July 10th - 3 for 1.5 keys in items.
July 10th - 1 for 4 refined
July 10th - 1 for 4 refined
July 9th - 1 for 4 refined
I have a lot more going back even into 2-3 weeks ago also.
People pay for convenience. Basic economics.
Man, I wish other sites had system to show done trades. TF2Outpost is often just ripoffs on top of quickbuyersI don't see why this would need a raise. Rarely have I seen tickets sell for more than 3.66 (except of tf2ripoffpost).
And I can generally get them 3.55. A raise just seems redundant and will generally just make easy profit for horders.
Right OP?And for such a sought after item. It's easy to expect people to pay a lot more to get it just because they are lazy. Anybody remember the whole key price raise of doom that happened a while ago? Just because someone introduced consistent bots into backpack.tf for keys.
same here i dont understant this if you can still buy it for 3.33 - 3,66 in bp why should we make a raise it makes no sense and have fun to downvote my reply but its ture!!!
Exactly! It should matter how many of each is going on for sales. I think 1000 sales at 3.66/backpack value are far more important than 30 or so sales at a higher price. No point in raising something based on people who are lazy enough to quickbuy.
My guess someone got ripped off buying 47 tickets and is now trying to make some money back
That would be a good guess, but it's incorrect if you're pertaining to the tickets I have. Even so, as I've said before, I'm going to be burning through my tickets to get something through Mann Up mode. Once I finish my work projects and get time off, that's what I'll be doing. If you'd like, you're welcome to monitor my backpack and watch these tickets turned into fabricators, kits and robot parts over the coming month or so.
The only people making money off of my tickets would be Valve.
owns 47 :T i dont want to mean price manipulation but... suspicious D:
You're also welcome to follow my backpack over the next month or so, if it would help to calm your suspicions. I've laid out my intentions multiple times on this thread.
Constructive criticism would probably be appreciated more for something like this, but thanks for your feedback anyway. :)
Great proof! Upvoted.
Great proof, you're getting my vote.
Hundreds of solds on my bot. Even though bots aren't good proof, they are selling like hot cakes. Upvote.
What is the sense of disagreement if you show no valid counters ?
http://backpack.tf/classifieds/?item=Tour%20of%20Duty%20Ticket&quality=6&tradable=1&craftable=0
3/4 of the 1st page actually filled with 3.66 refs sellers, more than 2 pages are below 4 refs, number of solds at 4 refs steeply declining, I think 3.66 - 3.88 is just fine.
I don't know if you know but sometimes the mann co store is just plainly cheaper than players trying to rip other players off. If you haven't noticed, outpost has only been successful because of the significantly lower prices it offers compared to the market. Now analyzing your data, the price you wish to implement is higher than the retail price which neither works in games or real life.
Secondly, the amount of tickets you have suggest you're trying to profit off the community. This is an automatic biased suggestion considering the quantity of tickets you have been hording.
The Mann Co. Store sells tickets for 0.99 USD. The high end of my specified range is 3.88 refined. If refined is valued at 0.24 to 0.25 USD, then the highest value in my range with the highest value of refined would be (3.88*0.25) or 0.97 USD. Trading outside of the Mann Co. Store would still be cheaper within my specified range.
Also, I've made my intentions very clear on this thread. Rather than repeat them, I would encourage you to scroll up to view them. I've also extended invitations for people to follow my backpack if they feel so inclined, to ease their suspicions of my motives. You are welcome to do so as well.
Its not like you have 47 though, so you're definitely not doing this to make a ton of profit or anything.
the number of tickets he has isn't particularly relevant to whether or not the proof is good
Yes, but he is more likely to raise the price if he has a high number :P
Im sure 5 refined means a lot to him.
Or maybe he plays a lot of MvM? People mass buy tickets to do a lot of tours, you know. It's not always a "time to raise my backpack value" thing.
I do in fact. :) I haven't had the time to play recently, but there's a group I'm a part of that regularly MvMs. Unfortunately, due to me hitting crunchtime for two projects at once, I haven't been able to play it. Trading and commenting is easy through the web, but actually using the tickets require Steam and TF2, which I don't have access to away from home.
Can't belive this is not accepted yet Oo
I buy for 3, 3.66, and 3.33. Good proof though.