Price Suggestion
~1.45 keys
Strange Teutonic Toque
93 votes up
73 votes down
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This suggestion was closed by A Distinctive Lack of Vincent.

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My first price suggestion! Doing this because, while selling a Cute Suit strangifier, I noticed a lack of pricing for the series 3 stranges, which is odd considering how long they've been out.


I did not find very many listings for this item, so I've actually included ALL of the listings. Some are currently unusable as proof, but are included in a separate section in case they change and become usable. Before posting I double checked to see if the Teut was still in the BP's of the sellers, and it was for all of them.


I ordered everything from most to least recent in each category, not by prices.

Key price at time of posting (April 17 8:15PM EST) = 7.44 ref.


Bazaar.tf proof

N/A – No buyers or sellers found

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Classified Listings proof

Seller name – price – age

mae – 1.26 keys (1 key+2ref) – 1 day

♫|TSP| THEbasenus_gołąb gru™ - 1.26 keys – 1 day

Vae Victorbus – 1.26 keys – 5 days

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TF2outpost proof

link – price – age

Sellers

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/18988167 – C/O 6 ref & no response, 38 min

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/19269581 –7 ref, 8 hours

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/19175185 – 6 ref, 2 days

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/19203978 – 1 key + 1 rec, 3 days

Stuff past this point gets a tad old

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/19143290 - “Looking for offers ranging 1 key or up,” 6 days, No C/O

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/19116853 – 1 key, 1 week

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/19026722 – 1 key, 1 week (looks like price dropped from 2 keys)

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/19086686 – 1key + 3 ref, 1 week (this is actually user mae from the classifieds proof area, who is asking only 1 key 2 ref on that younger ad, which is strong evidence the hat just isn't selling at this price. It has been bumped recently).


Buyers

A search for buyers on outpost yielded no results, with only 2 links popping up. Both were selling chem sets and not actually looking to buy anything.


Solds

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/19238190 – 6.33 ref, 1 day

Checked backpacks to confirm the sale, looks legit.


Outliers (all unsold)

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/19267598 – 2 keys, 10 hours

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/19194859 – 2 keys, 4 days

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/19125879 – Lvl 49, 7 keys, 1 week


Unusables

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/19069008 – No listed price, 19 min

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/19224427 – Offers, no prices mentioned, 2 hours

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/19230883#p54190848 – Looks like 1 key + 2 ref, but formatting is confusing, I asked for better clarification , 2 days.

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/19151568 – Offers, no prices mentioned, 5 days

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/19134739 – Offers, no prices mentioned, 6 days

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/19015363 – Lvl 99, offers, no prices mentioned, 1 week

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Steam Market info

All prices are in USD unless otherwise stated.

While I know it's not considered valid, I figure I'd include some info anyway to back up my outpost proof because there is so little of it. 1 sold at 2.10 today, 1 for 2.20 yesterday, and some sold around 2 from April 12th to April 15th and the graph is currently on a downward trend.


There are 7 listings for the item currently (April 17th 6:47PM EST).


Highest: 3

Lowest: 1.98

Range: 1.02

Mean: 2.32

Median: 2.1

Mode: 2.1


The mann co key has been averaging around 2.43 and sells like hotcakes. Using that to convert the prices of the S. Teut into keys we get


Highest: 1.23 keys

Lowest: .81 keys

Range: .41 keys

Mean: .95 keys

Median: .86 keys

Mode: .86 keys


Seeing as both the median and mode equal each other, and are not too far from the average which was artificially increased due to an outlier of 3, I feel 2.1 USD seems to be what most are asking for on the market. As shown above, using the key value of 2.43 works out to .86 keys.


.86 keys is about 6.4 refined. Which is close to the price I came up with just from looking at the outpost info.

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Final thoughts

While there are numerous sellers above my suggested price, the lack of listings for buyers and the fact that the only actual sale I have evidence of is for 6.33 ref makes me feel that the demand is not as high as those asking prices would suggest. I decided on 6.33 because demand is low, although the sellers seem to be steadfast in their prices. I feel the actual price is likely lower than 6.33, but without a starting point to drop off from, wont go down.


I welcome advice I could use to improve possible future suggestions (thinking 'bout hittin the rest of those series 3's). Perhaps a range would have been better? I thought of that but couldn't think of a decent one. Also, yes, I do own one, I plan to keep but understand why that will cause this suggestion to undergo more scrutiny than usual. I can't use my own experience as proof because I found the chem set and crafted it myself, all I brought was the normal hat, which readily sold at 1.33 and was easy to acquire.

    Aside from the obvious need for more links, does anybody have any thoughts as to how to improve possible future suggestions? I'd like to get more active on this site and would appreciate any help. What issues do you see with my suggestion (again, aside from the obvious)?


    Side Note: A "Preview Suggestion" option would be nice, just to smooth out some of the more glaring formatting errors before posting.

You put so much into this... yet you don't have valid evidence :(

    well actually there's the single sold at 6.33 but :u

      Yeah there is a major lack of links, and know that'll probably be the suggestion's undoing.


      I've seen suggestions pass with less proof, but very rarely. I figured I'd give it a shot. I like a challenge. Worst case, it fails and gets people thinking about the item more, so somebody else can have a proper go at it :D

      You sure did put a lot of effort into this...but it's wasted effort because of the lack of links. Downvote.


      Edit; Bookmark these trades and try again maybe in a few days when they sold. Good luck in the future!

        I'm gonna have to down vote. 1 sold simply isn't enough to justify its range

          A starting price requires solid sales, and a single sale is just not enough to price on.


          Closing for insufficient evidence