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Sale 1:
Sold for Cloud 9 Lord Cockswain’s Pith Helm (19.5) + 1 key
Seller doesn’t list B/Os on outpost, no point checking there
Seller: http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198192602363#!/compare/1493078400/1493164800
Buyer: http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198319715858#!/compare/1493164800/1493251200
X = 20 (rounded down, due to the sellers at 19 on the Pith
Sale 2:
Sold for Purple Confetti Thirst Blood (Mini at 16 below) + Bruiser’s Bandana (>0.5)
No outpost
Seller: http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198184105439#!/compare/1489449600/1490572800
Buyer: http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198187574587#!/compare/1490400000/1490572800
X = 17
Sale 3:
Sold for Infernal Flames Most Wanted (18) (Seller at less than 16 is young)
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/28896097 - B/O of 17
Seller: http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198319715858#!/compare/1493164800/1493251200
Buyer: http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198128448991#!/compare/1493078400/1493251200
X = 17 (Capped by B/O)
Sale 4:
Quicksold for 15 keys + >0.5 keys in metal/items
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/28892357 - B/O of 17.5
Seller: http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198350362515#!/compare/1492992000/1493078400
Buyer: http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198135268403#!/compare/1492905600/1493078400
X = 16
Sale 5:
Quicksold for 15 keys
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/29179125 - B/O of 15
Seller: http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198148446823#!/compare/1494806400/1494892800
Buyer: http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198240745690#!/compare/1491955200/1494892800
X = 15
Sale 6:
Sold for Spec. KS Aussie FaN (10) + ~2 keys in items
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/28898570 - B/O of 20
Seller: http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198128448991#!/compare/1493337600/1493510400
Buyer: http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198091469545#!/compare/1493337600/1493424000
X = 12
Sale 7:
Sold for Stormy Storm Surgeon’s Stahlhelm
Seller: http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198079578383#!/compare/1495670400/1495756800
Buyer: http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198067575136#!/compare/1495670400/1495756800
Probably better off using this to fix the Stahlhelm suggestion.
Purple Confetti Thirst Blood Mini:
http://backpack.tf/suggestion/5938f1bbc4404570bd049204
Sellers:
18 keys:
http://i.imgur.com/GvVpS5P.png - 7 days
http://backpack.tf/u/76561198067575136
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/29208031
http://i.imgur.com/ATU6Ugr.png - 22 days
http://backpack.tf/u/76561198034095893
20 keys:
http://i.imgur.com/o741vx2.png - 27 days
http://backpack.tf/u/76561198125791160
http://i.imgur.com/Gz1Fyx1.png - selling two, one of them unsold for 11 months
http://backpack.tf/u/76561198006544512
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/29179930
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/28925582
http://i.imgur.com/JzoGvQZ.png - 25 days
http://backpack.tf/u/76561198090956917
Offers:
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/29189270
http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198240745690
Sales at:
12
15
16
17 (2x)
20
Aged sellers at 20 show that 20 should not be in the range. Excluding 20.
Sales at 15 and 16 quicksold, excluding 16 and below.
Going with 17 flat.