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~9.5 keys
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Unusual Taunt: Mannrobics Skill Gotten Gains
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"In-date"

This took fucking AGES.


Sale 1:

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/28879395

http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198043903748#!/compare/1492473600/1492560000

http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198023126936#!/compare/1492300800/1492819200

Sold + Insomnia Casemaker (48) + TF Logo Trilby (21.5) for TF Logo Pullover ( http://backpack.tf/suggestion/58e5e3e9e33877257760a112 taking 210-240 I guess?)

225 - 48 - 21.5 = 153.5 (rounding to 155)


Sale 2:

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/28867129

http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198211445756#!/compare/1491609600/1492387200

Sold for Atomic Spacemann (Outdated at 146, mini at 136) + Logo Counter ( https://gyazo.com/04f414f3658ba77b630618b313a3da85 10) + 9 keys

= 155


Sale 3:

http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198095549699#!/compare/1487289600/1487376000

http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198112612121#!/compare/1487289600/1487376000

Sold + Gold BotRocket (~5) for Holy Grail Schadenfreude ( https://gyazo.com/645a2aedfc46f4c4e04e299c5e3d5632 two MONTH unsold at 110)

= 105


Sale 4:

http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198002186909#!/compare/1486598400/1486684800

http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198095549699#!/compare/1486598400/1486684800

Used to update the trophy belt


Sale 5:

http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198203307876#!/compare/1486512000/1486598400

Hellish Inferno Conga (will probably price with this, but support otherwise, seller at 125

Used there, but it's only supporting evidence there, so it can also be supporting evidence here at 100


Sale 6:

http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198112046826#!/compare/1492905600/1492992000

http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198139171368#!/compare/1492819200/1492905600

Sold for GE Trophy (67.5) + Blizzy Phantom (30.5)

= 98 (rounding to 100)


Sale 7:

http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198023239819#!/compare/1490918400/1491350400

1:1 for Mega Strike Robics (83)


Sellers:

https://gyazo.com/b7291eef8a790770442b3c9cbe77b18e

Classifieds right now. Seller at 100, 12-day old seller at 105.


Spacemann mini:

http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198106233311#!/compare/1489363200/1489449600

http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198091784062#!/compare/1489276800/1489449600

(54 + 40 + 39.5 + 16 + 26) - 34 = ~142


http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198018101085#!/compare/1490140800/1490227200

http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198024700553#!/compare/1490140800/1490227200

Few assumptions here (like putting the arcana bandanna as the same as the spellbound one) make this

(100 + 81.5) - 30 - ~10 = ~142


https://gyazo.com/1b805892826486ff07566d85a669899a

Sellers go down to 130

Taking 130-142.

---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

So what do we take from all this.

Sales at 83, 100, 105, 155, 155 (and sorta another one at 100)

Sellers at 100 and 105. 105 looks to be struggling to sell.


I know there's two of them but going to call the high sales outliers. I think that's the more representative thing to do at this point.

But also excluding 83 to compensate for that decision somewhat. Leaving 100-105.

Let it ride.

    Taunts are absolute cancer to price/update as they almost always sell for other taunts ^^

    Range seems fine, but I would have included 83 ^^

      Thanks, needed this ^w^

        ok this may not be relevant so i bought this thing for like 200 in items.you can find my sale in the first suggestion of this 'thing'.i then tried selling it for 180 pure.later on i knew it was overpriced af.(like wtf was wrong with me).and so i discounted for like 120 pure or downgrades.and so i sold it for GE trophy belt+bliz party phantom+5 keys pure+straange disp action+2 ks kits+conga+strange iron bomber+pool party taunt but he gave me 1 key as he wanted 10 keys in items.all of the sweets totaled at 11 so he gave me 1 key back

          Huh. I checked all the keys in the compare link, weird how those didn't show.

          Well, either way that makes your sale go from 98 to ABOUT 108? Valuing of those sweets might be a touch high, either way it can be rounded to 105 so this is still close enough :P

            well its coz the pool pparty traade was made today since it wasnt tradable.im not sure why the keys and sweets didnt show but do you need me to take a screenshot?

          Glad I didn't buy this now :P

            you took my sale wrong, it was the taunt + casemaker + trilby + logo Whirly Warrior, which i already sold

            http://i.imgur.com/spgVkqL.png?1

              Ahh, fair. Makes it less of an outlier but still above the sellers ;)

                i don't know, now we have Sales at 83, 100, 105, 155, 155 + the whirly= 186, and that showstopper exchange the guy below me brought up, which is either 130 or 160-sih. Is it fair to value the hat going off a single quickseller, when you have plenty of sales well above it?

                  The showstopper needs a drop. 12 days is not a quick sale.

                    Well, he has been selling for 13 days now. Will leave it up for a bit more time, but a hat is not worth 150 keys if it can't sell for 105 in weeks. I would not call that a "quicksell"

                      Well, two of the highest sales - the spacemann one and the logo pullover one - happened all the while he had it for sale. I'm genuinely unsure if the open sell order should be prioritized over the actual sales which took place, or the other way around. Maybe that indeed is not a quicksell, and just getting pure being hard nowadays.

                        All prices here are supposed to represent the value of items in pure. The fact that the sales happened while a b/o of 105 was available is even MORE reason to support 105. Paying over a pure b/o of 105 is overpay by definition and a sale of convenience.


                        However, in the case of both of the sales that are "higher," this would be better used to update those two hats. The logo pullover suggestion at 240 is clearly too high. This would be a sale at 170 which is probably more reasonable with that long standing b/o of 210.


                        The spacemann is probably going to be a higher sale around 150. But that would give sales at 83, 100, 105, and 150. 83 and 150 as outliers on either end with b/os at 100-105? Sounds more than reasonable to me

                http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198320741748#!/compare/1492905600/1492992000

                Another sale, could be used here or for the squaredance