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Train Headlights
http://backpack.tf/item/163370742
Sale 1) Sold for a Green Confetti Coldsnap Cap (58 Keys) + ~3 Keys of Items
http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561197999873164#!/compare/1487376000/1487462400
58 + 3 = 61 Keys
http://backpack.tf/item/253696528
Sale 2) Sold for a Burning Flames Rimmed Raincatcher
http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198042011386#!/compare/1489536000/1489622400
Fits in the range.
http://backpack.tf/item/1821555062
Sale 3) Sold for a Duped Orbiting Fire Soldier's Stash + Collector's Concheror
http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198136981355#!/compare/1486425600/1486512000
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/28767756 - Capped by the Buyout of 45 Keys
Sale 4) Sold for a Purple Energy Medic's Mountain Cap + Stormy Storm Napper's Respite
http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198074924284#!/compare/1487203200/1487376000
Fits in the range.
Sale 5) Sold for 41 Keys
http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198104872710#!/compare/1490572800/1490745600
I'm not sure I'm sold on this "fits into the range" shtick.
Raincatcher:
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/28833361
http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198042011386#!/compare/1490400000/1490486400
Caps at B/O of 50.
Mountain cap:
http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198260486392#!/compare/1491350400/1491436800
A metric friggin' butt-ton, outlier
http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198140431189#!/compare/1485993600/1486425600
Bunch of Unsolds at 45, but sale 1 supports a raise, taking 45 on the mountain cap.
Nappers:
http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198094167861#!/compare/1486598400/1486944000
Comes to like 13.5
https://gyazo.com/440999fa7b8814b9312d5a09688e957a
Young AF seller at 14.3, two unsolds at 17
Taking ~14.
So what actually happens, instead of getting a nice spread-out range, is you get a bunch of polarised sales: 41, 45, 50, 59, 61.
Given that the lower set has a pure sale and a capp-y B/O, I would be inclined to take 41-50, but the current seller has just turned down 44 pure: http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/28854921
So, I dunno. I'm thinking wait for one more definitive sale? But 41 as the low-end is too low.
agreed, 41 will be too low considering it quicksold (took 2 days to sell)
45 - 59 could probably work, using 61 to justify 59 in the range, but not including 61 because of the 2 Classified Sellers at 50.
Eeeeeh... Given the 50 sellers I'm inclined to think the sales above that are probably outliers. The range was okay, it averaged to about right, but in light of the low-end being invalid 45-50 is probably best here. 45-61 at worst, but again, those sellers...
Looks one of the sellers sold:
Sold for 50 Keys
http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198125791160#!/compare/1492992000/1493078400
I personally think 41 is gonna be low here as well, the high-end seems pretty well supported by the B/O-Capping sales, as they'd be worth more besides that. Regardless, I think 45-61 might work here, or 45-59 if you'd prefer.