Price Suggestion
Terror-Watt Runner's Warm-Up
Submitted by Erik
~10 keys
terror-watt
Unusual Runner's Warm-Up Terror-Watt
104 votes up
11 votes down
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Comments

Terror-Watt Runner’s Warm-Up

So many quicksells…


New price: 24 keys

[proof below]


SALE #1 = invalid


http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198285051945#!/compare/1484438400/1484524800

Quicksell for 18 keys pure


SALE #2 = 25 keys


http://backpack.tf/item/2224985703

http://backpack.tf/item/3337604497


http://backpack.tf/item/3848764352

Sold for a Miami Nights Rimmed Raincatcher + Bubbling Liquidator’s Lid


Mini for the Miami Nights Rimmed Raincatcher = 12

http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198154136440#!/compare/1484697600/1484784000

Sold for 12 pure


Mini for the Bubbling Liquidator’s Lid = 13

http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198221216268#!/compare/1482192000/1482278400

Sold for a Miami Nights Timeless Topper. Currently outdated, however there are 2 sellers. 1 at 12 and 1 at 13. Which makes it 12.5 = 13 average. 13 seems fine for the Lid.


SALE #3 = invalid


http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198237929718#!/compare/1484438400/1484524800

Quicksold for 20


There were like 4 sales that are unable to track because they sold within a day… Too many quicksells.


SUMMARY

Sales (valid) = 25

Sellers = 24 / 28


Capping this suggestion at 24 keys since there is a matured and bumped seller at 24.

http://imgur.com/a/hLWaj


Only 1 valid sale. However, this drop should be supported by the countless of quicksells around 20 keys that are invalid but prove that this hat is very overpriced.


Feel free to post additional proof.

    Sales should not get capped at sellers like this. Only the buyout of the seller involved in the trade directly influences the value of that sale.


    In my eyes, capping high ends based on current sellers should only be done when there is an immense amount of sales above a well-bumped, months old seller (or a ton of sellers at a certain value). In nearly any other case, it is better to wait for more sales. In this case 24-25 or even 25 flat will be fine (though I prefer the range I guess). General idea behind this is that a single seller at 24 does not mean anything over 25 is unrealistic. It supports the drop, but will never add more than 1 data point.


    In certain situations, where there is a compelling reason to include higher sales where there is/are seller(s) at less, without ruling them outliers, Im okay capping high ends at said sellers

      So, a resuggestion at 24-25 should work then? Even when the 24 seller remains unsold while the suggestions lasts?

        yeah; it will probably be handled swiftly. One could argue a one-key range is not worth resuggesting over, in which essence Im okay accepting this as close enough given the circumstances (though the fix would be appreciated; up to you), but for future reference its something to keep in mind