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Classifieds at the time of posting this suggestion.
The age of the listing(s) are shown in the screenshots rather than the last bump - Unsolds and item histories are presented in chronological order according to the screenshot(s).
x2 for sale at 4.66 Refined - http://i.imgur.com/X0a4Ytm.png
Unsold for 5 hours http://backpack.tf/item/4900567282
Unsold for 3 days http://backpack.tf/item/4476610672
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x1 for sale at 4.88 Refined - http://i.imgur.com/GH10OB6.png
Unsold for 6 days http://backpack.tf/item/4383945083
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x4 for sale at 5 Refined - http://i.imgur.com/5Km4HnJ.png
Unsold for 22 hours http://backpack.tf/item/4374753707
Unsold for 23 hours http://backpack.tf/item/4907909617
Unsold for 3 days http://backpack.tf/item/4675832634
Unsold for 3 days http://backpack.tf/item/4685720011
Outpost sellers.
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/28448542 - 5 Refined - Young - Poorly bumped.
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/28441682 - 5 Refined - Unsold for 3 days.
I am excluding all trades on Outpost that haven't been bumped for 1 day or more.
Both your sellers at 4.66 are gone. One quicksold, the other was unbumped for 3 days, and definitely wouldn't be enough proof for the drop