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Let's try this like this:
Sold: http://postimg.org/image/q85dhdgp3/ A bit of inventory refreshing later..
14.66, 15 and 15.33 sold. A seller left at 14 refined.
Unsold at Backpack price:
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/27706011 3 days.
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/27694286 6 days.
SCM supports this drop.
14 Ref should not be in range at all. According to classifieds there is only 1 seller at 14 Ref currently. Doesn't seem like a common enough trading point to be included in range. Apart from that here is a fresh sale at 15 Ref - http://imgur.com/EHGGhgW
Market disagrees. Plus, less than a page on Outpost. I see no reason not to include it considering it did not quicksell.
Seeing another seller at 14 right at this moment in the classifieds actually now that I checked. Not the same one so that'd make it 2 sellers now. Plus, SCM is at less than 14 ref equivalent in dollars. I think I have enough here.