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Resuggesting.
Sale 1: ~ Sold for a Cloudy Moon Galvanized Gibus (550 keys)
Trade: http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/26616534
Item: http://backpack.tf/item/3669326772
Seller's backpack before: http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198047433991?time=1438564924 (August 2nd)
Seller's backpack after: http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198047433991?time=1438585200 (August 3rd)
550 *0.9
= 495 (r>)
> 500
Mini on the Cloudy Moon Galvanized Gibus:
~ No available mini, using 4 month old price (550 keys)
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Sale 2: (Credits to Jacobmeister) ~ Sold for Mallard KE, Holy Grail Deep Fried, D@D Bicrone, Flies Pencil Pusher
Sale is impossible to use; bulk sale including unpriced unusuals/unusuals with no mini's available. Not using
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Outpost: ~ 1 seller listed/unsold for 1 month.
1x B/O = 750 keys
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Taking 500 flat.
Well even if you cant get exact minis, we can get an estimate with b/os:
Mallard Ke: http://backpack.tf/vote/id/5610756adea9e9b9564ac0f4 (243)
Holy Grail: http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/27198521 (45)
Bicorne: http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/27147769 (60)
Pencil: http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/22631793 (45)
----------------
~350 keys after overpay, and thats generous
350-500 would be too big of a range.
Why?
ehh 150 keys seems like a pretty big difference for this, doesn't it? And surely I can't base the bicorne off the B/O if it's unpriced can I?
Rare hats tend to have big ranges. Unless you can proof that 350 would be an outlier I see no reason to exclude it. Well I doubt that 60 keys is far off (more than 10-15 keys), so all in all it doesnt make a big difference, thats why I think that taking 350 keys for that sale would be ok.
I think you all missed some items in that sale. I'm copying what i had saved when i gathered evidence for this suggestion:
3) Sold for Holy Grail Deep Fried Desire (?) + Massed Flies Pencil Pusher (?) + Death at Dusk Buccaneer's Bicorne (?) + Steaming Smoking Skid Lid (?) + Orbiting Planets Kiss King (?) + Molten Mallard Killer Exclusive (?)
Buyer: http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198086406069?time=1439103600 (Aug 9th vs 10th)
Seller: http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198061402527?time=1439103600 (Aug 9th vs 10th)
Outpost trade: http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/26710337
KE doesn't appear on buyer's backpack, and Skid + Kiss don't appear on seller's backpack, but all had to be involved.
Edit: also, buyer's Outpost trade selling all items http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/26740550
I actually didnt check the sale itself yet.
And that is why we do the minis and work out the sale before closing the suggestion :P
Anyway, should be fine. The one on the market doesn't look like it's got much interest around it either, so upvote.
Given that the other sale here is going to be well under 500 (probably 350-400), this will need more digging into. You can either make some minis and estimations on that sale and give this a range or wait for another sale here. It wouldn't be appropriate to price this at 500 when there is another, newer sale for less.