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Only about 6 trades on OP that don't have paint.
Buyers (on bp.tf)
http://i.imgur.com/3yvpGPE.png
1x 8 ref (unbumped 5 days)
1x 7.66
1x 7.44
1x 7.33
1x 7.11
3x 7 ref
Unsuccesful OP buyers:
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/26914001 - 7 ref (had one retracted seller)
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/27019450 - 7 ref (unbumped 3 days)
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/27043997 - 7 ref
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/27047084 - 7 ref
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/27026531 - 6.66 ref
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/24912334 - 6.66 ref (old trade)
Conclusion: Hard to pinpoint a price. Many buyers at 7 ref remain unsuccesful, and the lowest OP seller is at 8.33 ref.
Going with 7.33-7.66 as a conservative bump - seems more accurate then the current price.
Sold for 8.33 ref:
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/27036853
(out of range but supports the raise)