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WARNING!! CONTAINS PROOF!
Initial observation: Very hard to find valid proof. A lot of people is asking for offers or money, several sellers above the current bp.tf range, 8 pages on Outpost, a big diversity between Outpost and sellers on Classifieds. Let's see what we can do.
Classfieds at the time of posting: http://imgur.com/zaoGRsq,mItMdIM,aSdK4gQ (three images)
Seller for 30 keys:
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/26738485 (probably a quicksell, not including in the range)
Sellers for 31 keys:
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/26724568 (young, duped)
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/26734076 (also asking for 32 keys for black max, not counting lower tier paints)
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/26737170
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/26736516 (unbumped)
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/26734839 (duped)
Sellers for 32 keys:
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/26737216 (duped)
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/26733848
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/26731440
Unsolds for 33 keys:
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/26718807 (2 days)
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/26737038 (hours, young)
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/26119082 (2 months?)
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/26695690 (4 days)
So yeah, that's pretty much it. This is my second suggestion, though the first one on such a popular item, feedback is MUCH appreciated.
Your first, third and fifth 31 sellers are level one and quite probably duped. Your fourth seller is unbumped.
Your first 32 seller is level one, and your third seller is badly bumped.
So that's only one valid seller at each price point. Which isn't really enough.
Third seller for 31 actually seems to be clean. I'll mark the dupes while I can. Looking at the classifieds there is a clear falling trend, so I'll keep it up and see if some more proof comes.
Clean or not, people are wary of level one max's regardless and they sell for less. It's as good as duped.
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/26712580
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/26717967
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/26715128
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/26718905
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/26715914
These all counter your proof.
All of these sales come from 2 days ago, when the falling trend just started to appear. I've actually made a first look on Outpost for proof that day. While on Classifieds there were 30 key sellers, there was no one on Outpost selling under 35.
Wow thanks for crediting me after stealing from my suggestion. Also no those don't counter the proof because they're all from before the max's had an apparent peak of price. That's why I closed my suggestion.
Clean seller for 31:
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/26738506
Clean seller for 31.88:
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198177195049
Clean seller for 32:
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/26738576
I will keep adding proof as I find new listings, I also keep an eye for 33k sellers if they remain unsold.
EDIT: the fourth seller for 31 keys in the first post actually bumped their trade.
Proof update #2
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/26738576 lowered their price to 31 keys - http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/26741592
Clean seller for 32 keys - http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/26740788
Proof update #3
Clean seller for 31: http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/26746079
Classifieds update: http://imgur.com/EevBHRE
I will provide unsolds soon.
Proof update #4
Sellers for 31 keys:
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/26750331
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/26746586
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/26751053
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/26751281
Seller for 32 keys:
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/26749991
Proof update #5
Unsolds for 33 keys:
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/26744307 - 1 day
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/26735224 - 2 days, not perfectly clean, but worth mentioning
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/26744332 - 1 day
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/26742170 - 1 day
And some more sellers:
31 keys:
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/26754458
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/26754291
32 keys:
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/26747339
Since this suggestion is up for so long, I feel I'm starting doing it right. Might as well keep updating the proof.
Proof update #6 - last before sleep
Two sellers for 31 keys, both are painted:
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/26760146
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/26757068
Thumbs up!
nice suggestion