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http://backpack.tf/stats/Strange/Festive%20Scattergun/Tradable/Craftable - 1 at 38, 1 at 39, 1 at 40
Lower than 40 keys:
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/22841045 - 38 - 6 days
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/22928068 - 38
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/21976256 - 35
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/22907755 - 38
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/22483374 - 40 with Strange Part
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/22907755 - 36 (gifted)
Unsolds at 40-42:
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/22883819 - 40 - 4 days ago
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/22437276 - 40 - 4 weeks ago
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/22576699 - 40 - 3 weeks ago
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/16975572 - 42
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/22905613 - 40 - 3 days ago
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/22849012 - 42 - 6 days ago
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/22928208 - 42 with Spec. Kill
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/22960071 - 41 with Spec. Kill. and Strange Parts
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/22938287 - 40 with Strange Parts
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/22834622 - 40
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/22938287 quicksold and you have it listed in both the "lower than 40" and "unsolds at 40-42" section
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/21976256 "2 buds 2 keys" = 36 keys. Also he made the trade a month and a half ago when buds were 19 keys, and in reply to someones question he said he was looking for about 42 keys.
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/22907755 is listed twice in the top section, once at 38 keys, once at 36 keys.
In your unsolds at 40-42 section, http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/22834622 is poorly bumped
I'm just playing devils advocate here.
Ah sorry mistake.
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/22841045 - sold already (doesn't have any in his BP too)
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/22907755 - not bumped for 3 days
I done that, because i think that is really hard to sell for 40 keys.
but you have hardly any proof for 38.
ie. one guy at 38 (2 days old) and another one selling for 2 buds + 2 keys since buds were 19.
40 flat seems best