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Using the original suggested values with overpay applied.
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/14908688 --> http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/14909222
Sold for a Vivid Capotain (~1.5) + Stormy Storm Gym Rat (~0.7) = ~2.2
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/15056238 --> http://www.tf2outpost.com/backpack/398671
Bought for an Dead Presidents Guard (~1.4) + Smoking Scotch (~0.6) = ~2
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/15056238 - buyout of 2.6 buds
What makes you say the Dead pres. Guad is worth 1.4 buds after Over-pay?
Edit: Oh. Guardian. Okay
Steals my suggestion and doesn't even credit me. Sounds legit.